E-mini Russell 2000 Index (TF) Futures Technical Analysis – February 15, 2016 Forecast

March E-mini Russell 2000 Index futures are trading higher shortly before the regular session opening. The catalyst behind the move is increased demand for higher-risk assets. Gains could be limited today because of the U.S. bank holiday and early futures market close. The markets will close today at 1:00 p.m. ET.

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. The short-term range is 1035.80 to 936.20. Its retracement zone at 986.00 to 997.80 is the primary upside target. The lower or 50% level of this range is currently being tested.

Since the main trend is down and the markets close early today, watch for sellers to come in on the initial test of the retracement zone.

Based on the early price action, the direction of the market the rest of the session is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the 50% level at 986.00.

A sustained move over 986.00 will indicate the presence of buyers. The first upside target is a downtrending angle at 991.80. This is followed by the short-term Fib level at 997.80. This price may act like resistance on the first test, but it is also the trigger point for an acceleration to the upside with the next possible target over the near-term a downtrending angle at 1013.80 today.

The inability to overcome the 50% level at 986.00 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger an intraday reversal to the downside with the next target a steep uptrending angle at 968.20.

The daily chart opens up to the downside under 968.20 with the next potential target another uptrending angle at 952.20.

Watch the price action and read the order flow at 986.00 today. Trader reaction to this level will tell us if the buying is real or just short-covering. Remember that today the market closes at 1:00 p.m. ET. Volume is expected to be below average so be careful buying strength and selling weakness.