E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – 2942.75 Potential Trigger Point for Acceleration into 2961.25

A surprisingly strong report on the health of the U.S. economy helped drive the benchmark S&P 500 cash market to a record close on Friday, capping a week of gains for stocks that came largely on the back of better-than-expected corporate profits.

During the pre-market trading session on Friday, the U.S. Commerce Department reported gross domestic product rising faster than expected due to high inventories. This supported the index early in the session, but during the last hour of trading it surged to its second record close for the week.

There was a struggle at the mid-session with Intel Corp., the biggest drag on the index. However, a jump in shares of Amazon and Walt Disney helped to stabilize prices.

On Friday, June E-mini S&P 500 Index futures settled at 2941.50, up 15.25 or +0.52%.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. It was reaffirmed on Friday. A trade through 2942.75 will signal a resumption of the uptrend with the September 21, 2018 main top at 2961.25 the next major upside target. However, due to the prolonged move up in terms of price and time, the index begins the session on Monday in the window of time for a closing price reversal top.

A trade through 2889.50 will change the main trend to down.

The minor trend is up. A trade through 2914.25 will change the minor trend to down. This will shift momentum to the downside.

The short-term range is 2889.50 to 2942.75. Its 50% level or pivot at 2915.50 is the nearest support.

The intermediate range is 2789.50 to 2942.75. If the trend changes to down then its retracement zone at 2866.00 to 2848.00 will become the next downside target.

The main retracement zone target is 2834.50 to 2809.00.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on Friday’s close at 2941.50, the direction of the June E-mini S&P 500 Index on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to Friday’s high at 2942.75.

Bullish Scenario

Taking out and sustaining a move over 2942.75 will indicate the presence of buyers. This could create the upside momentum needed to challenge the all-time high at 2961.25.

Bearish Scenario

The inability to overcome and a sustained move under 2942.75 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger a retest of the short-term pivot at 2915.50 and the minor bottom at 2914.25.

Taking out 2914.25 could trigger an acceleration to the downside with the next target the main bottom at 2889.50.

Closing Price Reversal Top Scenario

Taking out 2942.75 then breaking back below Friday’s close at 2941.50 will indicate the selling is greater than the buying at current price levels. This will also put the index in a position to form a potentially bearish closing price reversal top. If confirmed, this could lead to a 2 to 3 day correction.