E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – Needs to Hold 4454.50 to Sustain Early Momentum

September E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading flat in the pre-market trade on Friday after touching another record high earlier in the session. The market is also in a position to post a higher weekly close.

Helping to underpin the benchmark index were shares of Disney which jumped more than 5% in after-hours trading after the media giant reported blowout fiscal third-quarter earnings, crushing Wall Street expectations on subscriber growth, revenue and earnings, according to CNBC.

At 08:17 GMT, September E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading $4456.50, up 2.00 or +0.04%.

In other stock related news, Airbnb shares fell more than 4% after the travel company issued a warning about volatility due to the COVID delta variant.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through the pre-market high at 4458.50 will signal a resumption of the uptrend.

A move through 4224.00 will change the main trend to down. This is highly unlikely but due to the prolonged move up in terms of price and time, the index is inside the window of time for a closing price reversal top. This won’t change the trend, but if confirmed, it could trigger the start of a 2 to 3 day correction.

The minor trend is also up. A trade through 4412.25 will change the minor trend to down. This will also shift momentum to the downside.

The first minor range is 4412.25 to 4458.50. Its 50% level at 4435.25 is the first support. This is followed by 50% support at 4411.50.

The short-term range is 4224.00 to 4458.50. If the minor trend changes to down then its retracement zone at 4341.25 to 4313.50 will become the primary downside target.

(The 50% and retracement zones will move up as the index moves higher.)

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the September E-mini S&P 500 Index on Friday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 4454.50.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 4454.50 will indicate the presence of buyers. Taking out 4458.50 will indicate the buying is getting stronger. This could trigger an acceleration to the upside if there is enough volume behind the buying.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 4454.50 will signal the presence of sellers. If this move creates enough downside momentum then look for the selling to possibly extend into 4435.25. Taking out this level will indicate the selling pressure is getting stronger with 4412.25 – 4411.50 the next likely target zone.

A failure at 4411.50 could trigger an acceleration to the downside with 4364.75 the next target.

Side Notes

A close under 4454.50 will form a daily closing price reversal top. If confirmed, this could trigger the start of a 2 to 3 day correction.