ETH Bears Target Sub-$1,800 on a Hawkish Fed and Binance Woes

Key Insights:

• On Wednesday, ETH tracked the broader market into negative territory, falling 3.23% to end the day at $1,829.
• Staking statistics, Binance-related news, and hawkish central bank commentary weighed.
• The technical indicators turned bearish, signaling a return to sub-$1,800.

Ethereum (ETH) fell by 3.23% on Wednesday. Reversing a 1.61% loss from Tuesday, ETH ended the day at $1,829. Despite the reversal, ETH avoided sub-$1,800 for the seventh consecutive session.

A mixed start to the day saw ETH rise to a first-hour high of $1,891. Falling short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $1,917, ETH slid to an early evening low of $1,818. ETH fell through the First Major Support Level (S1) at $1,860 and briefly through the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $1,829 before ending the day at $1,829.

Staking Statistics, Binance News, and the Fed Weighed

It was a busy Wednesday session. The crypto news wires continued to provide direction mid-week, with Binance-related news testing buyer appetite. On Wednesday, Binance announced Paysafe Payment Solutions Limited plans to end EUR services to the exchange on September 25.

It was the latest in a series of events as regulators and service providers respond to intensifying regulatory scrutiny.

Fed Chair Powell added to the bearish mood, saying consecutive rate hikes remain on the table.

Staking Statistics Turned Bearish to Weigh on Investor Sentiment

According to CryptoQuant, staking inflows fell from 104,288 ETH on Tuesday to 28,288 on Wednesday. Significantly, ETH staking inflows fell below the 100,000 ETH threshold and mid-week ETH staking inflow trends.

The overnight withdrawal profile was bearish, with principal withdrawals at elevated levels. However, withdrawal projections for the morning session were bullish. Projections show principal ETH withdrawals will fall to normal levels this morning.

On Wednesday, the net ETH staking balance stood at a 10,930 ETH deficit (-51.28% over 24 hours), equivalent to a $20.54 million deficit. Deposits totaled zero versus withdrawals of 10,930 ETH.

According to TokenUnlocks, total pending withdrawals stood at 24,100 ETH, equivalent to approximately $44.27 million. Notably, the staking APR stood at 5.72%, unchanged over 24 hours. However, the downward trend in the staking APR remains a drag for staking inflows and is ETH price negative.

The Day Ahead

It is a busier Thursday session. US GDP and jobless claims will draw interest this afternoon. An unexpected spike in US jobless claims would ease bets on multiple Fed interest rate hikes. However, investors may hold back from responding to the numbers, with US inflation numbers on Friday likely to have more impact.

Central bank commentary will continue to provide direction, with Fed Chair Powell speaking today. However, the Fed Chair must deviate from recent scripts to move the dial.

Beyond the economic calendar, crypto-ETF-related chatter and SEC v Ripple Court rulings would garner plenty of interest.

ETH staking statistics and SEC v Binance and SEC v Coinbase (COIN)-related news updates will also provide direction.

Ethereum Price Action

This morning, ETH was up 0.56% to $1,839. A bullish start to the day saw ETH rise from an opening price of $1,828 to a high of $1,843.

ETH Technical Indicators

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was mixed signals. Ethereum sat above the 100-day EMA, currently at $1,833. The 50-day EMA closed in on the 100-day EMA, while the 100-day EMA widened from the 200-day EMA, delivering mixed signals.

A move through the 50-day EMA ($1,854) would support a breakout from R1 ($1,874) to target R2 ($1,919) and $1,950. However, a fall through the 100-day ($1,833) and 200-day ($1,825) EMAs would bring S1 ($1,801) and sub-$1,800 Major Support Levels into view. A move through the 50-day EMA would send bullish signals.

Resistance & Support Level