ETH Bulls Need ETF Approvals to Breakout from the $1,800 – $1,850 Rut

Key Insights:

• ETH ended a three-day losing streak on Saturday, gaining 0.44% to end the day at $1,836.
• Staking statistics remain bearish as the crypto market struggles with SEC silence.
• However, the shorter-term technical indicators remain bearish, signaling a fall to sub-$1,800.

Ethereum (ETH) gained 0.44% on Saturday. Reversing a 0.44% loss from Friday, ETH ended the day at $1,836. ETH fell short of $1,850 for the second consecutive session while ending the day in positive territory for the first time in four sessions.

Ethereum Price Action

This morning, ETH was down 0.13% to $1,833. A range-bound start to the day saw ETH rise to an early high of $1,837 before falling to a low of $1,832.

Daily Chart

The Daily Chart showed ETH hovering above the $1,815 – $1,795 support band. However, ETH sat below the 50-day EMA ($1,865) while holding above the 200-day ($1,786), sending bearish near-term but bullish longer-term price signals. Notably, the 50-day EMA narrowed to the 200-day EMA, a bearish price signal.

Looking at the 14-Daily RSI, the 42.70 reading reflects bearish sentiment, supporting a fall through the $1,815 – $1,795 support band to target the 200-day EMA ($1,786). However, an ETH move through the 50-day EMA ($1,865) would support a breakout from the $1,865 – $1,895 resistance band to target $1,950.

4-Hourly Chart

Looking at the 4-Hourly Chart, the ETH/USD faces strong resistance at $1,850 while sitting above the $1,815 – $1,795 support band. However, ETH remained below the 50-day ($1,847) and 200-day ($1,867) EMAs, sending bearish near and longer-term price signals.

An ETH move through the 50-day and 200-day EMAs would support a breakout from the $1,865 – $1,895 support band to target $1,950. However, failure to move through the 50-day EMA would leave the $1,815 – $1,795 support band in play.

The 14-4H RSI reading of 45.23 sends bearish price signals, with selling pressure outweighing buying pressure. Significantly, the RSI aligns with the 50-day EMA, supporting a fall through the $1,815 – $1,795 support band.

ETH Staking Statistics and Total Value Locked Trends Are Bearish

There were no Ethereum network-related events to provide direction on Saturday. The lack of network updates left ETH in the hands of the broader crypto market.

Dip buyers provided support on Saturday, with no crypto events to impact buyer appetite. However, the upside was modest, with ETH staking inflows and total value-locked (TVL) trends sending bearish signals.

This week, staking inflows fell short of the all-important 100,000 threshold, reflecting the uncertainty surrounding SEC plans to appeal the SEC v Ripple Court ruling and the pending SEC decisions on the BTC and ETH ETF applications. The increased uncertainty has likely contributed to the pullback in staking inflows.

In contrast, pending withdrawals have been on an upward trend, with the staking APR well below levels seen at the time of the Shapella upgrade.

The total value locked has seen a similar trend. According to DeFi Llama, the ETH TVL currently sits at $23.19 billion, down from $23.29 billion on Monday. Considering the leading Protocols, Lida DAO (LDO) and AAVE (AAVE) saw their respective TVLs fall by 1.60% and 16.59% over seven days, respectively. Curve Finance (CRV) exploit left the TVL down 25.91% over the same period.

Staking Statistics Remain Bearish

According to CryptoQuant, staking inflows decreased from 44,512 ETH on Friday to 30,592 on Saturday. Staking inflows remained below recent highs, sending a bearish price signal.

The overnight withdrawal profile was bearish, with ETH principal withdrawals at above-normal levels. However, withdrawal projections for the morning session remain bearish. Projections show ETH withdrawals will remain at above-normal withdrawal levels.

On Saturday, the net ETH staking balance stood at a 32,210 ETH surplus ($59.14 million), up 291% over 24 hours. Deposits totaled 45,720 versus withdrawals of 13,510 ETH.

According to TokenUnlocks, total pending withdrawals stood at 31,530 ETH, equivalent to approximately $57.83 million. Notably, the staking APR stood at 5.76%, unchanged over 24 hours. While the staking APR upward trend and net staking balance are bullish, the rise in total pending withdrawals and subdued staking inflows are bearish.