ETH Bulls to Retarget $1,750 on the Fed and Shanghai Hard Fork News

Key Insights:

• It was a bearish Wednesday session for bitcoin (BTC) and ethereum (ETH).
• Fed Fear and regulatory risk jitters weighed, while the FOMC meeting minutes limited the downside.
• However, ETH and BTC were in positive territory this morning.

Ethereum (ETH) fell by 1.02% on Wednesday. Following a 2.58% slide on Tuesday, ETH ended the day at $1,643. The bearish session left ETH short of the $1,700 handle for the first time in seven sessions.

A mixed start to the day saw ETH rise to an early high of $1,667 before hitting reverse. Falling short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $1,706, ETH slid through the First Major Support Level (S1) at $1,625 to a late afternoon low of $1,595. However, finding support at the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $1,590, ETH bounced back to end the day at $1,643.

On Wednesday, bitcoin (BTC) fell by 1.12%. Following a 1.49% loss on Tuesday, BTC ended the day at $24,191. The bearish session left BTC short of the $25,000 handle for the second time in seven sessions. BTC fell to sub-$24,000 levels for the second time in five sessions.

A mixed start to the day saw BTC rise to an early morning high of $24,485. However, falling short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $25,071, BTC slid to a late afternoon low of $23,578. BTC briefly fell through the First Major Support Level (S1) at $24,016 before ending the day at $24,191.

FOMC Meeting Minutes Ease Fed Fear to Deliver Price Support

On Wednesday, Fed Fear eased as investors responded to the latest FOMC meeting minutes. The minutes were less hawkish-than-expected, supporting the NASDAQ Composite Index and a bullish end to the day for the broader crypto market.

However, the minutes are dated. Since the FOMC meeting, the US Jobs Report, CPI Report, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Survey, and retail sales figures support a more hawkish Fed policy outlook.

More upbeat stats from the US and sticky inflation numbers would likely fuel bets of a higher for longer policy outlook. However, easing fears of a US economic recession has limited the impact of the Fed on ETH and BTC over the near term.

The Day Ahead

Investors should monitor the crypto news wires for SEC activity and US lawmaker chatter that likely remain the focal points for investors.

For Ethereum, updates from ongoing testing in the lead-up to the Shanghai hard fork remain key. Reports of bugs or a possible delay to the anticipated end-of-month event would be ETH negative.

US economic indicators and Fed chatter will also draw interest in the afternoon session. An unexpected fall in US jobless claims and upward revisions to Q4 GDP numbers could refuel Fed fear after Wednesday’s less hawkish-than-expected FOMC meeting minutes.

Ethereum (ETH) Price Action

At the time of writing, ETH was up 1.54% to $1,668. A bullish start to the day saw ETH rise from an early low of $1,637 to a high of $1,674. The First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $1,675 capped the upside.

Technical Indicators

ETH needs to avoid a fall through the $1,635 pivot to retarget the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $1,675 and $1,700. A move through R1 would signal a breakout session. However, Shanghai hard fork updates and the crypto news wires should be ETH-friendly to support a breakout.

In the event of an extended rally, the bulls would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $1,707 and resistance at $1,750. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $1,779.

A fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $1,603 into play. However, barring another broad-based crypto market sell-off, ETH should avoid sub-$1,600 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $1,563. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $1,491.

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a bullish signal. Ethereum sat above the 50-day EMA, currently at $1,655. The 50-day EMA pulled away from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA widening from the 200-day EMA, delivering bullish signals.

A hold above the 50-day EMA ($1,655) would support a breakout from R1 ($1,675) to target R2 ($1,707) and $1,750. However, a fall through the 50-day EMA ($1,655) would give the bears a run at the 100-day ($1,634) and S1 ($1,603). A fall through the 50-day EMA would send a bearish signal.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action

This morning, BTC was up 1.43% to $24,199. A bullish start to the day saw BTC rise from an early low of $24,134 to a high of $24,589. The First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $24,591 capped the upside.

Technical Indicators

BTC needs to avoid the $24,085 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $24,591. A return to $24,500 would signal a breakout session. The crypto news wires and US stats should be crypto-friendly to support an extended rally.

In the event of an extended rally, BTC would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $24,992 and resistance at $25,000. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $25,899.

A fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $23,684 into play. However, barring another Fed-fueled crypto sell-off, BTC should avoid sub-$23,000. The Second Major Support Level (S2) at $23,178 should limit the downside.

The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $22,271.

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a bullish signal. BTC sat above the 50-day EMA ($24,072). The 50-day EMA moved away from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA widening from the 200-day EMA, delivering bullish signals.

A hold above the 50-day EMA ($24,072) would support a breakout from R1 ($24,591) to target R2 ($24,992) and $25,000. However, a fall through the 50-day EMA ($24,072) would give the bears a run at S1 ($23,684) and the 100-day EMA ($23,584). A fall through the 50-day EMA ($24,072) would send a bearish signal.