ETH Eyes $1,650 to Target $1,700 on Shanghai Hard Fork Optimism

Key Insights:

• It was a bearish end to the week for bitcoin (BTC) and ethereum (ETH), with ETH ending a five-day winning streak.
• Fed Fear stemming from the US Jobs Report and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI from Friday continued to weigh on buyer appetite.
• ETH and BTC continued to struggle this morning.

Ethereum (ETH) fell by 2.34% on Sunday. Reversing a 0.18% gain from Saturday, ETH ended the week down 0.94% to $1,628. A five-day winning streak ended on Sunday.

After a mixed start to the day, ETH rose to a mid-morning high of $1,674. Coming up short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $1,693, ETH slid to an early evening low of $1,609. ETH fell through the First Major Support Level (S1) at $1,643 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $1,619 before a partial recovery to end the day at $1,628.

On Sunday, bitcoin (BTC) fell by 1.64%. Following a 0.50% loss on Saturday, BTC ended the week down 3.43% to $22,932. BTC extended its losing streak to four sessions and ended the day at sub-$23,000 for the first time in five sessions.

A bullish start to the day saw BTC rise to a mid-morning high of $23,419. Coming up short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $23,514, BTC fell to a late low of $22,777. BTC fell through the First Major Support Level (S1) at $23,182 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $23,049 to end the day at $22,932.

Fed Fear Weighed on Investor Sentiment

There were no crypto events to provide direction on Sunday. The lack of Zhejiang testnet testing updates left ETH and BTC in the hands of the broader crypto market.

On Sunday, investors continued to respond to the Friday US Jobs Report and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI survey that delivered Fed monetary policy uncertainty and a bearish NASDAQ mini start to the week. This morning the NASDAQ mini was down 62 points.

Today, there are no US economic indicators for investors to consider. The lack of stats will leave FMOC member chatter and the NASDAQ Composite Index to influence. However, investors need to monitor the crypto news wires for Shanghai hard fork news and Zhejiang testing news.

FTX, Genesis, Silvergate Bank updates and regulatory chatter will also provide direction.

Ethereum (ETH) Price Action

At the time of writing, ETH was down 0.08% to $1,628. A mixed start to the day saw ETH rise to an early high of $1,643 before falling to a low of $1,609.

Technical Indicators

ETH needs to move through the $1,637 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $1,665 and the Sunday high of $1,674. A return to $1,650 would signal a breakout session. However, Shanghai hard fork updates should be ETH-friendly to support a breakout.

In the event of an extended rally, the bulls would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $1,702. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $1,767.

Failure to move through the pivot would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $1,600 in play. However, barring another broad-based crypto market sell-off, ETH should avoid sub-$1,600 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $1,572. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $1,507.

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a bullish signal. Ethereum sat above the 100-day EMA, currently at $1,600. The 50-day EMA moved away from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA widening from the 200-day EMA, delivering bullish signals.

A move through the 50-day EMA ($1,631) would support a breakout from R1 ($1,665) to target R2 ($1,702). However, failure to move through the 50-day EMA ($1,631) would give the bears a run at S1 ($1,600) and the 100-day EMA ($1,600). A move through the 50-day EMA would send a bullish signal.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action

At the time of writing, BTC was down 0.56% to $22,804. A mixed start to the day saw BTC rise to an early high of $23,093 before falling to a low of $22,666. The First Major Support Level (S1) at $22,666 delivered early support.

Technical Indicators

BTC needs to move through the $23,043 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $23,308 and the Sunday high of $23,419. A return to $23,500 would signal a breakout session. However, the crypto news wires will need to be crypto-friendly to support an extended rally.

In the event of an extended rally, BTC would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $23,685 and resistance at $24,000. The Third Major Resistance Level sits at $24,327.

Failure to move through the pivot would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $22,666 in play. However, barring a risk-off-fueled crypto sell-off, BTC should avoid sub-$22,500 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $22,401. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $21,759.

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a mixed signal. BTC sat above the 100-day EMA, currently at $22,681. The 50-day EMA narrowed to the 100-day EMA, while the 100-day EMA widened from the 200-day EMA, delivering mixed signals.

A move through the 50-day EMA ($23,195) would support a breakout from R1 ($23,308) to target R2 ($23,685) and $24,000. However, a fall through the 100-day EMA ($22,681) and S1 ($22,666) would bring S2 ($22,401) into view. A move through the 50-day EMA would send a bullish signal.