ETH Eyes a Return to $1,400, with BTC Targeting $21,000 on US Stats

Key Insights:

• After a mixed Thursday session, bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) found strong price support this morning.
• Geopolitics and Fed fear took a backseat with investors responding further to Thursday’s CPI report.
• The technical indicators are mixed, however, as investors look ahead to US retail sales and consumer sentiment figures.

On Thursday, bitcoin (BTC) rose by 1.17%. Following a 0.51% gain on Wednesday, BTC ended the day at $19,385. Notably, while avoiding the red for the third time in nine sessions, BTC fell short of $20,000 for the sixth consecutive session.

A bearish morning saw BTC tumble to a mid-day low of $18,161. The reversal saw BTC fall through the Major Support Levels and the September low of $18,210.

However, finding afternoon support from the NASDAQ, BTC rallied to a high of $19,515. BTC broke through the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $19,254 and the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $19,347 to end the day at $19,385.

Ethereum (ETH) fell by 0.54% on Thursday. Partially reversing a 1.09% gain from Wednesday, ETH ended the day at $1,287.

A bearish morning to the day saw ETH slide through the Major Support Levels to a mid-day low of $1,190. Finding support from the broader market, ETH rallied to a late high of $1,302. However, falling short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $1,309, ETH slipped back to end the day at sub-$1,290.

US economic indicators delivered heightened market volatility on Thursday. Market Fed fear, fueled by the US CPI report, sent BTC and ETH into the deep red before a market rebound. BTC and ETH tested resistance levels despite the increased bets of 75-basis point Fed rate hikes in November and December.

There were no other influences to support the afternoon rebound. Softer inflation than in August likely brought relief. Another spike in inflation may have forced the Fed to consider percentage point rate hikes to curb inflation.

This afternoon, US retail sales and consumer confidence will be in the spotlight. In Wednesday’s FOMC meeting minutes, some members suggested the need to take the foot off the gas should economic indicators warrant it. Weak retail sales figures could ease bets of an aggressive December move.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action

At the time of writing, BTC was up 2.17% to $19,805. A bullish morning saw BTC rise from an early low of $19,347 to a high of $19,944.

BTC broke through the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $19,880 before easing back.

Technical Indicators

BTC needs to avoid the $19,020 pivot to retarget the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $19,880 and the morning high of $19,944. A BTC move through the morning high of $19,944 would signal a bullish afternoon session. However, FOMC member chatter and US economic indicators would have to be BTC-friendly to support a breakout session.

In the case of an extended rally, BTC should move through the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $20,374 to target $21,000. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $21,728.

A fall through the pivot would likely see BTC test the First Major Support Level (S1) at $18,526. Barring another extended sell-off, BTC should avoid sub-$18,000 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $17,666.

The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $16,312.

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a bullish signal. This morning, bitcoin sat above the 200-day EMA, currently at $19,721.

The 50-day EMA closed in on the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA narrowing to the 200-day EMA to deliver bullish signals.

BTC needs to avoid the 200-day EMA ($19,721) to retarget R1 ($19,880) and support a return to $20,000. However, a fall through the 200-day EMA ($19,721) would give the bears a run at the 100-day EMA ($19,462) and the 50-day EMA ($19,371) to target (S1 ($18,526).

Ethereum (ETH) Price Action

At the time of writing, ETH was up 3.08% to $1,327. A bullish morning saw ETH rally from an early low of $1,283 to a high of $1,342.

ETH broke through the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $1,329 before easing back.

Technical Indicators

ETH needs to avoid the $1,260 pivot to retarget the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $1,329 and resistance at $1,350. However, investor sentiment would need to improve to support a breakout from the morning high of $1,342.

In the event of an extended rally, the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $1,372 and $1,400 would likely come into play. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $1,484.

A fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $1,217 into view. However, barring another crypto sell-off, ETH should avoid sub-$1,200 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $1,148.

The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $1,036.

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a bearish signal. Ethereum sat at 100-day EMA, currently at $1,327. The 50-day EMA narrowed to the 100-day EMA while the 100-day EMA eased back from the 200-day EMA, delivering mixed signals.

A break out from R1 ($1,327) and the 100-day EMA ($1,327) would give the bulls a run at R2 ($1,372) and the 200-day EMA ($1,381). However, a fall through the 50-day EMA would bring S1 ($1,217) into play.