ETH Run at $1,700 in the Hands of US Stats and the NASDAQ Composite

Key Insights:

• Bitcoin (BTC) and ethereum (ETH) ended a bullish month on a bearish note on Monday, with ETH falling by 1.13% and BTC by 0.67%.
• Market apprehension ahead of the Fed’s monetary policy decision on Wednesday weighed on the NASDAQ Composite Index, which dragged BTC and ETH into the red.
• However, the technical indicators remain bullish, signaling further gains in the week ahead.

On Monday, bitcoin (BTC) slipped by 0.67%. Following a 0.89% loss on Sunday, BTC ended the month up 5.55% to $20,509. Notably, BTC wrapped up the day at $20,000 for the seventh consecutive session while avoiding sub-$20,000 for the sixth day in a row.

After a mixed start to the day, BTC rose to a late morning high of $20,860. Falling short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $20,887, BTC fell to an early afternoon low of $20,257. BTC fell through the First Major Support Level (S1) at $20,469 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $20,292 before wrapping up the day at $20,509.

Ethereum (ETH) fell by 1.13% on Monday. Following a 1.79% loss on Sunday, ETH ended October up 18.34% to $1,573.

After a choppy start to the day, ETH rose to a late-morning high of $1,636. ETH broke through the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $1,629 before sliding to a mid-afternoon low of $1,546. ETH fell through the First Major Support Level (S1) at $1,565 before a partial recovery to end the session at $1,573.

Investor apprehension toward Wednesday’s Fed monetary policy decision and press conference weighed on riskier assets. On Monday, the NASDAQ Composite Index fell by 1.03%, dragging BTC, ETH, and the broader crypto market into the red.

Later today, US economic indicators will influence, with ISM Manufacturing and JOLTs job openings in the spotlight. The numbers could impact sentiment toward the December policy decision.

This morning, the NASDAQ 100 mini was up 138 points, providing BTC and ETH support through the morning session. The markets are still betting on a 75-basis point rate hike on Wednesday and a December pivot.

Today, the FedWatch Tool had the probability of November and December rate hikes at 87.0% and 41.8%, respectively. One week ago, the likelihood of a 75-basis point hike in December stood at 50.8%.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action

At the time of writing, BTC was up 0.65% to $20,642. A mixed morning saw BTC fall to an early low of $20,457 before rising to a high of $20,699.

Technical Indicators

BTC needs to avoid the $20,542 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $20,827 and the Monday high of $20,860. A BTC return to $20,750 would signal a possible breakout session.

In the case of an extended rally, the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $21,145 and $21,500 would likely come into play. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $21,748. Crypto-friendly economic indicators would support a bullish afternoon session.

A fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $20,224 in play. Barring an extended sell-off, BTC should avoid sub-$20,000 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $19,939.

The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $19,336.

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a bullish signal. This morning, bitcoin sat above the 50-day EMA, currently at $20,355. The 50-day EMA pulled away from the 200-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA widening from the 200-day EMA to deliver bullish signals.

A hold above the 50-day EMA ($20,312) would support further upside and a return to $21,000. However, a fall through the 50-day EMA would bring the 100-day EMA ($20,041) into view. The 200-day EMA sits at $19,870.

Ethereum (ETH) Price Action

At the time of writing, ETH was up 2.12% to $1,606. A mixed start to the day saw ETH fall to an early low of $1,568 before rising to a high of $1,613.

Technical Indicators

ETH needs to avoid the $1,585 pivot to retarget the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $1,624 and the Monday high of $1,636. An ETH return to $1,620 would signal a bullish afternoon session. However, moves through the US session will be data-dependent.

In the event of an extended rally, the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $1,675 and $1,700 would likely come into play. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $1,765.

A fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $1,534 into play. However, barring another crypto sell-off, ETH should avoid sub-$1,500 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $1,495.

The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $1,405.

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a bullish signal. Ethereum sat above the 50-day EMA, currently at $1,528. The 50-day EMA pulled away from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA widening from the 200-day EMA, delivering bullish signals.

A hold above the 50-day EMA would support a breakout from R1 ($1,624) to target R2 ($1,675) and $1,700. However, a fall through S1 ($1,534) and the 50-day EMA ($1,528) would bring sub-$1,500 support levels into view.