ETH to Target $1,800 on ETH Staking Stats and BTC Return to $25,000

Key Insights:

• It was a bearish Sunday session for bitcoin (BTC) and ethereum (ETH).
• A lack of network updates and crypto events left Fed Fear and regulatory risk jitters to peg back the pair.
• However, ETH and BTC made solid gains this morning.

Ethereum (ETH) fell by 0.71% on Sunday. Following a 0.12% fall on Saturday, ETH ended the week up 10.89% to $1,680. ETH revisited $1,700 for a fourth consecutive session.

After a range-bound morning, ETH rose to a late afternoon high of $1,727 before hitting reverse. ETH broke through the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $1,711 before falling to a low of $1,667. ETH briefly fell through the First Major Support Level (S1) at $1,677 before a partial recovery to end the day at $1,680.

On Sunday, bitcoin (BTC) fell by 1.42%. Reversing a 0.21% gain from Saturday, BTC ended the week up 11.53% to $24,284. Despite the bearish session, BTC revisited the $25,000 handle for the third time in four sessions.

After a range-bound morning, BTC rallied to a late afternoon high of $25,209. BTC broke through the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $24,857 and the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $25,082 before hitting reverse. The reversal saw BTC slide to a late low of $24,221. BTC fell through the First Major Support Level (S1) at $24,429 to wrap up the day at $24,284. The Second Major Support Level (S2) at $24,226 cushioned the downside.

Shanghai Hard Fork Optimism To Outmuscle Fed Fear

On Sunday, there were no updates from developers busy testing the Shapella testnet. With the expected Shanghai hard fork around the corner, the lack of silence left ETH on the back foot on Sunday.

However, investor optimism cushioned the downside. After delays to the Ethereum Merge, updates from the Shanghai hard fork have continued to be positive. For ETH stakers, the recent SEC move against US staking services has tested sentiment toward the hard fork.

ETH staking inflows have been mixed since the Kraken settlement with the SEC, raising uncertainty over whether the Shanghai hard fork will deliver an ETH price breakout.

According to CryptoQuant, daily ETH staking inflows fell to a February low of 4,896 ETH (13/02/23) before recovering. On February 14, inflows hit a February high of 33,280 EHT before falling back. On February 19, ETH staking inflows stood at 16,800 ETH.

Investors will likely want to see the upward trend resume next week to support further ETH price gains. However, ETH would need Shanghai hard fork news to be positive to support an upward trend. More importantly, regulatory risk jitters would need to abate.

The Day Ahead

Investors should monitor the crypto news wires for SEC activity and US lawmaker chatter that likely remain the focal points for investors.

For Ethereum, developer updates from testing the Shapella testnet also will influence. Reports of bugs or a possible delay to the anticipated Shanghai hard fork in March would be ETH price negative. However, investor sentiment toward regulatory risk will likely dictate ETH and BTC price direction over the near term.

Ethereum (ETH) Price Action

At the time of writing, ETH was up 1.95% to $1,713. A mixed morning saw ETH slide to an early low of $1,651 before rising to a high of $1,718. Ethereum briefly broke through the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $1,716.

Technical Indicators

ETH needs to avoid a fall through the $1,691 pivot to retarget the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $1,716 and the Sunday high of $1,727. A move through R1 would signal a breakout session. However, Shanghai hard fork updates and the crypto news wires should be ETH-friendly to support a breakout.

In the event of an extended rally, the bulls would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $1,751. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $1,811.

A fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $1,656 into play. However, barring another broad-based crypto market sell-off, ETH should avoid sub-$1,600. The Second Major Support Level (S2) at $1,631 should limit the downside. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $1,631.

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a bullish signal. Ethereum sat above the 50-day EMA, currently at $1,648. The 50-day EMA pulled further away from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA widening from the 200-day EMA, delivering bullish signals.

A hold above S1 ($1,656) and the 50-day EMA ($1,648) would support a breakout from R1 ($1,716) to target R2 ($1,751). However, a fall through S1 ($1,656) and the 50-day EMA ($1,648) would give the bears a run at S2 ($1,631) and the 100-day ($1,623). A fall through the 50-day EMA would send a bearish signal.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action

This morning, BTC was up 2.40% to $24,867. A choppy morning saw BTC fall to an early low of $23,862 before rising to a high of $24,983. BTC tested the First Major Support Level (S1) at $23,934 before coming up against the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $24,922.

Technical Indicators

BTC needs to avoid a fall through the $24,571 pivot to retarget the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $24,922 and the Sunday high of $25,209. A return to $25,000 would signal a breakout session. The crypto news wires need to be crypto-friendly to support an extended rally.

In the event of an extended rally, BTC would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $25,559 and resistance at $26,000. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $26,547.

A fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $23,934 back into play. However, barring a crypto event-fueled crypto sell-off, BTC should avoid sub-$23,500. The Second Major Support Level (S2) at $23,583 should limit the downside.

The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $22,595.

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a bullish signal. BTC sat above the 50-day EMA ($23,766). The 50-day EMA pulled further away from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA widening from the 200-day EMA, delivering bullish signals.

A hold above S1 ($23,934) and the 50-day EMA ($23,766) would support a breakout from R1 ($24,922) to target R2 ($25,559) and $26,000. However, a fall through S1 ($23,934) and the 50-day EMA ($23,766) would give the bears a run at S2 ($23,583). A fall through the 50-day EMA would send a bearish signal.