Ethereum Elliot Wave Analysis: Showing Signs of Weakness Below $4,000

Ethereum (ETH) Price Analysis

On the daily Ethereum (ETH) chart we can see that the price continued its bullish momentum after breaking out from a prolonged corrective phase in November.

After completing wave (ii) as a triangle correction, ETH entered an impulsive five-wave structure, currently extending into its final wave (v), according to the Elliott Wave Theory.

The price peaked at $4,087 on December 9 but faced rejection near the macro high previously made in March and a psychological resistance at $4,000.

ETH is trading near $3,880, with overbought conditions indicated by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), as it reached values over 70%. This suggests a potential for short-term consolidation or a pullback before the broader uptrend resumes, potentially pushing prices above $4,000.

On the other hand, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is still bullish without any major signs of a reversal just yet.

ETH Price Prediction

The hourly chart highlights a textbook impulsive wave structure, with ETH reaching the culmination of wave (v) near $4,080. According to EW the sub-division of its impulsive waves should also be a lower-degree five-wave pattern, which we can spot on the lower time frame.

This marks the end of a strong rally since the breakout from the triangle pattern in early November. Currently, ETH is retracing from its recent high, indicating the start of a potential ABC corrective wave.

Measuring with the Fibonacci retracement tool from the beginning of November’s uptrend to December 6. high we can spot some significant zones at which the price can find support. If we assume that we saw the uptrend being completed a deeper retracement to the 0.5 Fibonacci level would be the most likely outcome.

If ETH holds above these levels, the broader bullish trend could resume, targeting a breakout above $4,075.

Key Levels to Watch

Support Levels:

$3,669 (0.236 Fib): First support during the pullback.

$3,418 (0.382 Fib): Major support aligning with prior consolidation.

$3,215 (0.5 Fib): Likely end of wave A.

$3,012 (0.618 Fib): Critical structural support.

Resistance Levels:

$4,075: Current rally peak and major resistance.

$4,200: Next target if the uptrend resumes.

Outlook

Ethereum’s strong rally signals growing market confidence, though overbought conditions and key resistance levels suggest a short-term pause.

A pullback toward support levels around $3,418–$3,215 could allow ETH to consolidate before attempting a breakout above $4,075.

If support levels fail, deeper corrections may follow, but the broader trend remains bullish, and any dip is likely to present new buying opportunities for a renewed upside.