Following Wednesday's bullish session, ethereum is under pressure this morning. However, the Merge is imminent and could support a breakout.
On Wednesday, Ethereum (ETH) rallied by 4.06%. Partially reversing an 8.27% slide from Tuesday, ETH ended the day at $1,639.
After a range-bound morning, ETH fell to a late afternoon low of $1,553. Avoiding the First Major Support Level (S1) at $1,504, ETH rallied to a late high of $1,649. However, coming up short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $1,704, ETH eased back to end the day at sub-$1,640.
Bullish sentiment towards today’s Ethereum Merge delivered support. While ETH rose by 4.06%, ravencoin (RVN) and ethereum classic (ETC) saw gains of 17.44% and 11.23%, respectively, reflecting the influence of the Merge on the broader crypto market.
However, investor anxiety hit ETH and the broader crypto market this morning. The smooth transition to a Proof-of-Stake (PoS) protocol would support a bullish session.
Less than 120 minutes remain until the biggest event of the 2022 crypto calendar. Today, Ethereum’s transition to a PoS protocol is expected to reduce the network’s energy consumption by 99.95%.
Significantly, the move to a PoS protocol will also remove the Ethereum blockchain from the scrutiny of US lawmakers, who continue to target Proof-of-Work cryptos for their carbon footprint.
As previously reported, the Merge is just the start. The network plans to carry out a series of upgrades to make Ethereum more scalable.
At the time of writing, ETH was down 2.29% to $1,602. A mixed start to the day saw ETH rise to an early low of $1,654 before falling to a low of $1,584.
ETH needs to move through the $1,614 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $1,674. Investor apprehension ahead of the Merge will need to ease to support a pre-Merge breakout from the Wednesday high of $1,649.
In the event of an extended rally, ETH could target the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $1,710. A seamless transition to the PoS protocol should support a breakout session. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $1,806.
Failure to move through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $1,578 into play. Barring another sell-off, ETH should avoid sub-$1,550 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $1,518. However, any delays or unforeseen problems with the Merge would bring sub-$1,500 into play.
The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $1,422.
Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a bearish signal. Ethereum sat below the 200-day EMA, currently at $1,639. The 50-day EMA closed in on the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA narrowing to the 200-day EMA, delivering bearish signals.
An ETH breakout from the EMAs would give the bulls a run at R1 ($1,674) and a return to $1,700. As previously stated, the Merge will need to take place seamlessly to support a breakout session.
However, news of any problems with the Merge would likely result in a sharp sell-off. A bearish cross of the 50-day EMA through the 100 and the 200-day EMAs would give the bears a run at sub-$1,500.
With over 20 years of experience in the finance industry, Bob has been managing regional teams across Europe and Asia and focusing on analytics across both corporate and financial institutions. Currently he is covering developments relating to the financial markets, including currencies, commodities, alternative asset classes, and global equities.