Ethereum price broke above the $3,762, on Monday Dec 2, its highest since June 2024. On-chain data shows whale investors have been on an ETH buying spree since Gensler’s exit was confirmed in mid-November.
Will ETH price stage a decisive breakout above $4,000 in the week ahead?
The crypto market has been in a steady uptrend over the past month, propelled by serveral bullish catalysts ranging from Trump’s re-election, and dovish macroeconomic landscape, with the US Fed, Bank of England and the European Central Bank all cutting interest rates as global inflation cooled in November.
After nearly a month on the uptrend, crypto investors began displaying higher risk tolerance, increasingly leaning towards altcoins, while BTC prices stagnated below $100,000.
The chart below above shows how Ethereum’s recent bullish price action has coincided with a sharp decline in Bitcoin’s market share.
As seen above, Ethereum price has increased 26%, moving from $3,015 on November 14, to a new 5-month peak of $3,746 on Monday December 2. Meanwhile in the last 10-days Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) has dropped considerably from 61% on November 21 to hit 56.6% at the time of publication.
When a decline in Bitcoin dominance coincides with a surge in global crypto market cap as observed in the past week, it signals that investors are re-directing capital towards altcoins and memecoins, displaying higher risk appetite as market confidence grows.
Recent reports shows the impending exit of SEC chairman Gary Gensler has enhanced investor confidence in the altcoin sector. This puts Ethereum in prime position to deliver a superior performance relative to BTC in December 2024.
In confirmation of this stance, IntoTheBlock’ Large Holders’ inflow metric tracks the daily deposits and withdrawals from whale wallets that control at least 0.1% of the total ETH in circulation, i.e 120,000 ETH (~$43 million).
The chart above shows that Ethereum whale wallets have recorded a positive netflows in each of the last 20 trading days, dating back to November 13. Notably, the highest single-day inflows of 2570 came on November 14 when Gensler’ exit was confirmed.
During that period the whales acquired a total of 1,702,835.5 ETH at an average price of $5.7 billion.
When whales make surge large inflows during a market rally, it signals widespread expectations of further upside. If retail investors mirror the whale’s long postions, Ethereum could witness waves of demand surge in the weeks ahead.
More so, whales are known to have a long-term investment horizon. If they keep the recent $5.7 billion purchase out of short-term market supply, ETH price could witness accelerated upswings if market demand continues to increase as hinted by the dip in BTC dominance.
Ethereum’s recent performance indicates a strong bullish momentum, with the $5.7 billion whale inflows in the last 20-days confirming further upside potential.
From a technical standpoint, ETH price currently faces stiff resistance at the $3,800, a breach of which could trigger a $4,000 breakout in the weeks ahead.
The Donchian Channels (DC) show Ethereum trading near the upper band of $3,760, suggesting a potential breakout above this resistance. A close above this critical resistance level could clear the path to the $4,000 milestone.
On the downside, immediate support lies at $3,387, aligned with the DC midline, ensuring Ethereum remains within its bullish structure.
The BBP (Bullish/Bearish Power) indicator reflects sustained buyer strength, with the metric at a high of 395.44. This signals strong accumulation and whale activity as Ethereum maintains upward momentum.
In conclusion, as Ethereum whales re-enter the market and Bitcoin dominance dips, an ETH price breakout toward $4,000 seems increasingly likely in December 2024.
Ibrahim Ajibade Ademolawa is a seasoned research analyst with a background in Commercial Banking and Web3 startups, specializing in DeFi and TradFi analysis. He holds a B.A. in Economics and is pursuing an MSc in Blockchain.