Ethereum Price Prediction: $3,500 Breakout or $2,500 Reversal?

Ethereum (ETH) price moved above $3,000 again on Feb 22, the second time in the last 3 trading days. On chain data trends show that investors appear reluctant to book profits. 

As the bulls await the next wave of the market rally, is ETH poised for a major breakout toward $3,500? 

Traders Unwilling to Sell Despite 3k Retest 

Monday, Feb 19 marked the first time Ethereum price hit $3,000 since April 2022. Remarkably, it bucked the market trends, recovering from a mild pullback to retest the milestone again on Thursday Feb 22.

In contrast, Bitcoin (BTC), had dipped to a weekly low of $50,660 as ETFs failed to recapture last week’s buying frenzy, making Etherem’s reclaiming the $3,000 level this week even more remarkable. 

But looking past the price charts, the conviction among ETH long-term holders suggests more price upswing could follow in the coming days. 

Santiment’s Age Consumed metric, tracks long-term investors trading activity, by multiplying the number of coins recently-traded by the number of days since they had last moved. Declining figures of the Age Consumed typically means that fewer long-held coins are currently being traded and vice-versa. 

The chart above depicts that ETH recorded significant surges in Age Consumed between Jan 22 and Feb 15, signaling moments of intense profit-taking among long-term holders. However, despite crossing the $3,000 mark twice this week, this phenomenon has not reared its head. 

For context, last week, Ethereum Age Consumed peaked at 275.8 million coin days on Feb 14. But this week, the highest value recorded was 108.3 million coin days consumed as of Feb 19, which signifies 61% lower selling momentum among long-term investors. 

When long-term investors begin to display conviction to HODL with price trending at historic peaks, as observed above, it is often taken as a major bullish signal. 

Considering the timing, it suggests that Ethereum price breaking the $3,000 barrier has inspired greater confidence among existing holders. In essence they may now have their sights set on the next significant milestone price around $3,500. 

Ethereum Price Forecast: $3,500 Breakout more Likely Than $2,500 Reversal 

Based on the bullish conviction observed among Ethereum long-term holders this week, ETH price is now more likely to breakout above $3,500. But to actualize this bullish forecast, ETH LONG traders must first surmount the looming sell-wall at $3,200. 

This outlook is further affirmed by IntoTheBlock’s Global In/Out of The Money metric, which groups all existing Ethereum investors according to their entry prices. 

Notably, 12.9 million existing holders had bought 4.75 million ETH at the minimum price of $3,200, forming the largest cluster of potential profit-takers above the current prices. 

But if Ethereum price can find a significant demand catalyst to smash through the $3,200 resistance, it could open the doors to a rapid rally towards $3,500, as predicted. 

On the flip side, the bears could stage a major comeback if they can force a downswing below $2,500. But this seems far-fetched in the short-term, considering the looming buy-wall mounted by the 5.2 million addresses who had acquired 7.5 million ETH at the $2,700 territory.