Ethereum Prices Forecast: ETH Navigates Storm of SEC Moves and Market Fears

Key Insights:

• ETH falls short of the $1,700 mark for the first time since June 15, intensifying investor scrutiny.
• SEC’s potential approval of ETH Futures ETFs fails to bolster the cryptocurrency’s price this week.
• SEC Chair Gensler’s stance on ETH post-Merge casts shadows over its regulatory future.

Friday Overview

Ethereum (ETH) fell by 1.25% on Friday. Following a 6.87% slide on Thursday, ETH ended the day at $1,661. Significantly, ETH fell short of $1,700 for the first time since June 15.

SEC Plans to Approve ETH Futures ETF Delivers No Comfort

It has been a bearish week for ETH and the broader crypto market.

Fed Fear gripped the global financial markets, with the hotter-than-expected US retail sales figures (August 15) and the FOMC meeting minutes refueling hawkish Fed monetary policy bets. An ETH correlation with the NASDAQ Composite Index was evident following US retail sales numbers on Tuesday.

However, investors also responded adversely to the SpaceX news and the SEC progress toward interlocutory appeal of the Judge Torres ruling in the SEC v Ripple case.

SEC Chair Gary Gensler threw ETH into the SEC Securities Basket after the Merge. Ironically, after the Williman Hinman support for ETH in the infamous speech, ETH is now also at the mercy of the SEC, and the SEC’s progress toward an appeal of the July 13 Court rulings.

News of the SEC preparing to approve Ether-Futures ETFs failed to deliver a full recovery of the current week’s losses. However, price action was evident, with ETH recovering from a Thursday low of $1,572.

According to the Bloomberg report, firms including Volatility Shares, Bitwise, and ProShares have filed Ether-Futures ETF applications. However, there are no signs of an SEC willingness to approve spot ETFs. The future of spot-Ether ETFs likely rests on the fate of the current batch of spot-BTC ETF applications.

As noted by the Bloomberg report, the outcome of the Grayscale Investments LLC case against the SEC for rejecting an application to convert its Bitcoin trust to an ETF could prove pivotal.

Hong Kong Shanghai Bank (HSBC) started allowing its clients to trade BTC and ETH Futures ETFs in June.

While the SEC approval of one, some, or all of the ETH-Futures ETFs would be a step forward, investors are mindful that the SEC would need to approve spot ETFs to fuel the next wave of inflows into the digital asset space.

Staking Statistics Reflect Opportunistic Inflows

Staking inflows bounced back, with investors taking advantage of current ETH price levels.

According to CryptoQuant, staking inflows surged from 36,064 on Thursday to 92,000 on Friday. However, inflows remained below the 100,000 threshold. A sustained move through the 100,000 level would signal a shift in market sentiment.

The overnight withdrawal profile was relatively bearish, with principal withdrawals at above-normal levels before easing back. Notably, withdrawal projections for the morning session turned bullish. Projections show withdrawals will remain at below-normal withdrawal levels.

On Friday, the net staking balance stood at a 41,680 surplus ($73.62 million), up 499% over 24 hours. Deposits totaled 56,420 versus withdrawals of 14,750.

According to TokenUnlocks, total pending withdrawals stood at 37,560, equivalent to approximately $62.44 million. Notably, the staking APR stood at 4.91%, unchanged over 24 hours. While the downward trend in staking APR remains bearish, the rise in the net staking balance and the fall in pending withdrawals are bullish price signals.

However, while the staking statistics signal a bullish Saturday session, investors should consider the current market headwinds.

(All amounts in ETH unless otherwise stated)

Ethereum Price Action

This morning, ETH was down 0.04% to $1,661. A mixed start to the day saw ETH rise to an early high of $1,671 before falling to a low of $1,660.

Daily Chart

The Daily Chart showed ETH hovering above the lower level of the $1,670 – $1,650 support band. ETH remained below the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, sending bearish near and longer-term price signals.

Looking at the 14-Daily RSI, 19.64 showed ETH in oversold territory. However, the RSI aligns with the EMAs, signaling a fall through the $1,670 – $1,650 support band to retarget sub-$1,600. A return to $1,700 would give the bulls a run at the 200-day EMA and the $1,795 – $1,815 resistance band.

4-Hourly Chart

Looking at the 4-Hourly Chart, the ETH/USD faces strong resistance at $1,700. ETH sits above the lower level of the $1,670 – $1,650 support band. However, ETH remains below 50-day and 200-day EMAs, sending bearish near and longer-term price signals.

An ETH return to $1,700 would give the bulls a run at the 50-day EMA and the $1,795 – $1,815 resistance band. However, failure to move through the upper level of the $1,670 – $1,650 support band would leave sub-$1,600 in play.

The 14-4H RSI reading of 13.74 shows ETH in deeply oversold territory, with selling pressure outweighing buying pressure. Significantly, the RSI aligns with the 50-day EMA, signaling a return to sub-$1,600.