Ethereum Prices Forecast: Is $1,950 in Sight Amid SEC and ETF Drama?

Key Insights:

• ETH recovers slightly with a 0.27% gain on Monday, countering Sunday’s 0.49% loss.
• SEC v Coinbase case sways investor sentiment, court briefs closely watched.
• A move through the 50-day EMA could propel ETH past $1,865 – $1,895 resistance, targeting $1,950.

Ethereum (ETH) gained 0.27% on Monday. Partially reversing a 0.49% loss from Sunday, ETH ended the day at $1,845. However, ETH ended the day at sub-$1,850 for the fourth consecutive session.

Ethereum Price Action

This morning, ETH was down 0.08% to $1,843. A range-bound start to the day saw ETH rise to an early high of $1,847 before easing back.

Daily Chart

The Daily Chart showed ETH hovering below the $1,865 – $1,895 resistance band. ETH also sat below the 50-day EMA while holding above the 200-day, sending bearish near-term but bullish longer-term price signals.

Looking at the 14-Daily RSI, the 45.99 reading reflects bearish sentiment, supporting a fall through the $1,815 – $1,795 support band to target the 200-day EMA. However, an ETH move through the 50-day EMA would signal a breakout from the $1,865 – $1,895 resistance band to target $1,950.

4-Hourly Chart

Looking at the 4-Hourly Chart, the ETH/USD faces strong resistance at $1,850. ETH sits below the $1,865 – $1,895 resistance band and the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, sending bearish near and longer-term price signals.

An ETH move through the EMAs would support a breakout from the $1,865 – $1,895 resistance band to target $1,950. However, failure to move through the 50-day EMA would leave the $1,815 – $1,795 support band in play.

The 14-4H RSI reading of 47.08 reflects bearish sentiment, with selling pressure outweighing buying pressure. Significantly, the RSI aligns with the 50-day EMA, signaling a fall to the $1,815 – $1,795 support band.

Inflows and Coinbase Sentiment Offset ETF and SEC Headwinds

ETH inflows offered price support on Monday. According to a CoinShares report, ETH saw inflows of $2.5 million last week, reducing outflows for August to $4.1 million. However, outflows stood at $73 million year-to-date.

Investor sentiment toward the ongoing SEC v Coinbase case also offered support in hopes of a favorable outcome. The Court filings of Amicus Curiae briefs could influence the case’s outcome. Republican Senator Cynthia Lummis was among those filing an Amicus Curiae brief.

However, staking statistics and SEC-fueled uncertainty about the spot BTC ETFs and the motion to appeal the SEC v Ripple Court ruling capped the upside.

Former SEC Official John Reed Stark thinks the SEC will decline the current batch of spot BTC ETF applications. Investors expect spot ETH ETF applications to follow the approval of one, some, or all of the spot BTC ETFs.

ETF and SEC activity will continue to draw interest after SEC Chair Gary Gensler included ETH in the SEC Securities Basket.

Staking Statistics Send Bearish Price Signals

According to CryptoQuant, staking inflows increased from 23,424 ETH on Sunday to 27,904 on Monday. Sub-30,000 sits below longer-term trends, a bearish price signal.

The overnight withdrawal profile was bullish, with ETH principal withdrawals at normal levels. Notably, withdrawal projections for the morning session turned bearish. Projections show ETH withdrawals will spike before returning to normal withdrawal levels.

On Sunday, the net ETH staking balance stood at an 18,990 ETH surplus ($35.13 million), down 17.7% over 24 hours. Deposits totaled 27,490 versus withdrawals of 8,500 ETH.

According to TokenUnlocks, total pending withdrawals stood at 52,450 ETH, equivalent to approximately $96.99 million. Notably, the staking APR stood at 4.93%, unchanged over 24 hours. The downward trend in staking APR, the decline in the net staking balance, and elevated pending withdrawals are bearish price signals.

However, SEC v Coinbase, SEC v Binance, and SEC v Ripple-related news will need consideration today. Favorable updates would offset the bearish staking statistics.