Ethereum Whales’ Unrealized Profit Ratio Drops to Bear Market Levels

The unrealized profit ratio among Ethereum ($ETH) whales has plummeted to levels not seen since the previous bear market, indicating a challenging phase for the second-largest cryptocurrency.

ETH Whales’ Unrealized Profits Turn Negative

According to CryptoQuant data, ETH whales—particularly those holding 1,000-10,000 ETH and 10,000-100,000 ETH—have seen their unrealized profits turn negative.

This development suggests that a large portion of medium-sized ETH investors either bought at higher levels during previous rallies or have held through multiple price fluctuations without realizing gains.

In turn, the 1,000-10,000 ETH and 10,000-100,000 ETH cohorts’ negative unrealized profit ratio indicate mounting pressure, as traders in this range may be more likely to cut losses or reduce exposure if market conditions remain uncertain.

“Ethereum is currently going through a difficult period,” noted Cryptoquant analyst Darkfrost, adding:

“The ETH/BTC ratio continues to decline, and it’s also facing a phase of rather intense FUD combined with very complex price action.”

In dollar terms, meanwhile, Ether’s performance has been equally in shambles, having dropped by over 35% year-to-date. Macroeconomic policies such as US President Donald Trump’s trade war and the Federal Reserve’s pause on interest rate hikes spoil the broader risk-on mood.

The cryptocurrency has returned to a historically significant support/resistance (S/R) level, which has been pivotal in ETH’s price action since 2021.

The key S/R zone, highlighted in the chart, has acted as a strong support in previous bear markets and a resistance during bullish phases. Ethereum’s current decline has brought it back to this level, making it a make-or-break moment for the asset.

If ETH holds above this zone and sees a weekly close above $2,200, it could trigger a relief rally toward $2,500 – $2,750.

However, Ethereum could drop toward the previous support area of $1,750-1,800 if the price breaks below this support, marking a significant bearish continuation as suggested by whales’ negative unrealized profits.

Ethereum Near the Cusp of Bearish Reversal Breakdown

Ethereum is flashing a bearish technical signal as a head and shoulders (H&S) pattern forms on the weekly timeframe. The pattern, often associated with trend reversals, suggests that ETH could be heading for a deeper correction if key support levels fail to hold.

The head and shoulders pattern is characterized by three peaks: a central high (head) flanked by two lower highs (left and right shoulders). The neckline, which serves as the final support level, is currently being tested around $2,000.

A confirmed breakdown below this level could trigger further downside pressure, with the pattern’s measured move target pointing toward $1,130—a level not seen since early 2023.

Adding to the bearish outlook, Ethereum is currently trading below the 50-week exponential moving average (EMA), which sits at $2,904, and is struggling to maintain support above the 200-week EMA, which sits at $2,296.

A breakdown of this long-term trendline would further validate the head-and-shoulders setup, signaling a potential trend shift toward a broader bearish phase.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is also showing weakness, hovering around 37.49, indicating that Ethereum is entering oversold territory. However, without a strong bullish reaction at these levels, the price could continue declining, aligning with the head-and-shoulders target.