EUR/USD and USD/JPY and AUD/USD Forecast – US Dollar Still Remains Noisy

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The euro has risen a little bit during the early hours on Friday, only to give those gains back as we are just bouncing around right now trying to sort out whether or not this area is going to continue to be consolidated or if we are in fact going to pull back or take off. There’s been a lot of noise out there when it comes to the Euro trading against the US dollar, mainly due to interest rates in Germany rising for some time now, and at least at the moment, it looks like rates in America are falling.

So, if that’s going to be the case, it does make sense that the Euro would continue to go higher. Ultimately though, there are a lot of risk concerns out there which favors the dollar, so expect more choppy sideways action.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

The US dollar has fallen pretty significantly against the Japanese yen, only to turn around and show signs of life. It still looks like the 150 yen level is going to be a bit of an epicenter for price, so with that being the case, I am a bit cautious to get overly aggressive here. If we could break above the 200-day EMA, right around the 151.50 yen level, then I think that opens up the floodgates and the US dollar starts taking off.

In the short term, though, I expect to see a lot of noisy behavior, but keep in mind, the Bank of Japan is starting to change its tune a little bit in some of its statements as to whether or not it’s going to tighten monetary policy, so this is a situation I’m watching.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar has initially tried to rally only to fall pretty significantly during the early Monday session. And it now looks like we’re going to try to get down to the 0.62 level, given enough time. Short term rallies should continue to see some suppression here right around the 50 day EMA. Anything above there, then I think the Aussie could go back to the 0.64 level.

Now, despite the negativity during the trading session on Monday, we’re still very much in the same consolidation area that we have been in basically since New Year’s Day, so I still look at 0.62 and 0.64 as your guide rails.

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