EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Bounces From the 50-Day EMA

EUR/USD Forecast Video for 26.06.23

Euro vs US Dollar Technical Analysis

The euro plunged quite drastically during the trading session on Friday, reaching down toward the 50-Day EMA. This market continues to see a lot of volatility and noisy behavior, and it’s probably worth noting that the European Union is already jumping into recession. The 50-Day EMA offered significant support during the trading session, and now it looks like the euro is trying to reach the 1.09 level.

On the other hand, if the market were to break down below the 50-Day EMA, then the market could go down to the 200-Day EMA, which is going along with the uptrend line. Because of this, the trendline will be very important, so pay close attention to it, as it could define where we go next. With this, I think the market is still in an uptrend, but that uptrend line is broken to the downside would obviously continue to send this market down. On the other hand, if we were to turn around and break above the top of the candlestick from the Thursday session, then the market could go looking to the 1.11 level above.

In general, this is a market that I think continues to see a lot of noisy behavior, so therefore you will have to be cautious with position sizing, but to me, it’s obvious that we have a tough road ahead. Volatility is picking up in most markets; of course, the EUR/USD pair will be no different than any other market.

All things being equal, this is more about the US dollar than anything else, as markets are trying to convince themselves that Jerome Powell is not serious about raising interest rates. Ultimately, if there is more “risk on behavior,” the Euro should continue to increase. However, the market showing more hesitation to take on risk would have this pair looking to go lower. With that in mind, the market is likely to continue to see a lot of back and forth as we try to sort out whether or not the market is going to go higher or lower on the whole, with the pair being a bit of a proxy for risk appetite for not only the US dollar, but could be a bit of a proxy for the entirety of the global markets.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.