EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Continues to Consolidate

EUR/USD Forecast Video for 13.11.23

Euro vs US Dollar Technical Analysis

The euro bounced slightly during the trading session on Friday, with the 50-Day EMA offering a bit of support. The 50-Day EMA is an indicator that a lot of people will pay attention to and is probably worth noting at this point that the 200-Day EMA sits above, meaning that we are squeezing between 2 major technical indicators. Currently, we are in the midst of trading in a bearish flag, but the longer we stretch out, the more likely we are to break out of it and change patterns.

If we break down below the 50-Day EMA, then it’s likely that the market could go down to the 1.06 level, which is the bottom of the flag itself. This would be a continuation of the overall negativity that we have seen over the last several months, with the exception of the last couple of weeks. In the last couple of weeks, we have seen a little bit more strength in the euro, so if we break above the top of the shooting star for the Monday session, then it’s likely that we will see more flow into the euro, sending this market looking to the 1.09 level.

Either way, I think this is a market that you are looking for some type of signal to act on, meaning that you are waiting for the market to break out of the range between these moving averages. While I don’t necessarily know what will cause it, clearly, there will be some type of external force that gets pushed upon this market. The most likely would probably be something along the lines of the geopolitical issues that we see.

After all, the US dollar is considered to be a safety currency, so that could be the biggest driver of what happens next. On the other hand, we also have interest rates favoring the United States, so it’s possible that that could come into the picture as well. Alternatively, if the market suddenly decides to push the narrative that the Federal Reserve might slow down its monetary policy, then it’s possible that we could send this market toward the 1.09 level above. I am waiting on a breakout of these 2 moving averages to determine which direction we go next.

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