EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Drops Again

EUR/USD Forecast Video for 10.11.23

Euro vs US Dollar Technical Analysis

The euro fell again during the trading session on Thursday as we continue to bounce around between 2 major moving averages. As the 50-Day EMA is below, and the 200-Day EMA is above, it makes a certain amount of sense that the market will face a bit of volatility. If and when we can break out of this area, then we have a real shot at making some type of bigger move. In the meantime, it’s likely that we are going to see a lot of choppy volatility, and as we head into Friday, there’s no reason to think that traders are going to be out there looking for a lot of risk to suddenly take on.

Speaking of risk, keep in mind that the US dollar is considered to be a safety currency, so it will be difficult for the greenback to pick up a lot of steam if traders feel like taking on extra risk. That being said, there are a lot of things going on around the world that would make you think that it’s very unlikely that traders are going to be taken on the line of risk at this point. Because of this, I suspect that sooner or later we will break down below the 50-Day EMA, and when we do it’s likely that we could drop down to the 1.06 level. The 1.06 level is the bottom of the overall bearish flag that we have been bouncing around in, so I think that’s a reasonable ask of the market.

On the other hand, if we were to turn around a break above the top of the shooting star from the Monday session, that would be a very bullish sign and could open up a move to the 1.08 level, possibly the 1.09 level. In that environment, I would fully anticipate that the market will have changed its attitude, and lease for the intermediate term. With all that being said, I do expect a lot of choppy volatility regardless of what happens next. The attitude has been one of nonchalant trading, and I think that probably continues to be the case overall as traders try to convince himself somehow that interest rates are going lower in the United States.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.