EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Takes Off after Non-Farm Payroll

EUR/USD Forecast Video for 10.07.23

Euro vs US Dollar Technical Analysis

The euro has rallied rather significantly during the trading session on Friday, as the market looks like it is going to try to get back to the 1.10 level. That’s an area where we’ve seen a bit of resistance previously, so I do think that it is probably only a matter of time before we see a little bit of pushback in that general vicinity. If we break above the 1.10 level, it is possible that we could see the euro go all the way to the 1.11 level.

All things being equal, this is a market that’s reacting to the Non-Farm Payroll announcement, and the idea that perhaps the Federal Reserve will have to do a little less monetary tightening than people believed. Underneath, the 50-Day EMA offered support, and therefore it’s likely that we would find quite a bit of buying pressure in that area. If we were to break down below there, then the market could go down to the 200-Day EMA, which is closer to the 1.07 level.

Keep in mind this is a market that will continue to be noisy, and we have been consolidating for a while. However, the market has been forming a bit of a bullish flag, and that suggests that we could go higher. All things being equal, this is a market that probably continues to be very noisy, but eventually we will have to make a bigger decision. We are in the midst of summer, and that does tend to be a very noisy time of year, and I find it interesting that the euro continues to rally, mainly due to jawboning from the ECB, because Germany is already in a recession.

At the end of the day, all of the central banks will probably have to turn right back around and start loosing monetary policy, so I think at this point it is probably going to be a situation where we are going to have to pay close attention to who blinks first, because these jokers all believe that they are going to remain tight forever as the world around them crumbles. Eventually, recession could come into the picture for everybody, and then you will see loosening monetary policy across the board. In the meantime, I think we have more sideways action than anything else.

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