EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Tests Top of Short-term Range

EUR/USD Forecast Video for 13.06.23

Euro vs US Dollar Technical Analysis

The euro rallied a bit during the trading session on Monday, as we continue to test a short-term range. The 1.08 level above seems to be offering resistance, while the 1,07 level underneath offers a little bit of support due to the 200-Day EMA coming into the picture. There’s also an uptrend line underneath, and therefore I think there is plenty of support to keep this market afloat. However, this week is going to be extraordinarily dangerous in this pair once we get going, as the Federal Reserve has an interest rate meeting on Tuesday, and the European Central Bank has its meeting the very next day. In other words, we are about to get a resolution to all of this choppiness.

The 50-Day EMA is sitting just above as well, so that’s also worth something as far as resistance is concerned. Ultimately, this is a market that I think over the next 2 days might be somewhat quiet, but once we get to that Federal Reserve meeting and statement, things are about to get really wild. Another thing you need to keep in mind is that the reaction on Wednesday could very well be counteracted by the one on Thursday, meaning that the initial reaction might be the wrong one.

All things being equal, this is a market that is in an uptrend, and you would have to assume that we will eventually see that takeover, but things could change rapidly due to the events over the next couple of days, so caution is the better part of valor, and quite frankly you might even be better off staying away from this pair until we get some type of resolution. That being said, if the market makes a move ahead of the announcements, it’s possible that we could see the market trying to “front run the central banks”, but again, that would be extraordinarily difficult, and therefore you need to be cautious, as this will be the epicenter of most of the volatility for the next week or so, and therefore a situation that needs to be taken using caution and experience.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.