EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Touches the 50-Day EMA

EUR/USD Forecast Video for 14.06.23

Euro vs US Dollar Technical Analysis

The Euro has rallied a bit during the trading session on Tuesday, as we have touched the 50-Day EMA. The 50-Day EMA is an indicator that a lot of people pay close attention to, and therefore it’s not a huge surprise to see that we have pulled back from there. That being said, we have inflation numbers later in the day and of course we have the Federal Reserve meeting and announcement on Wednesday that will have a major influence on the US dollar. Adding more fuel to the fire, we have the Thursday session and the European Central Bank monetary policy statement. All things being equal, I think this is going to be a very difficult pair to trade over the next couple of days, because quite frankly, this is the epicenter of noise.

If we turn around and break down below the bottom of the candlestick for the trading session on Tuesday, then it’s very likely that we head toward the 200-Day EMA underneath, with the uptrend line underneath offering support as well. Ultimately, after that we also have the 1.06 level offering support and a potential target. On the upside, if we were to break out above the 50-Day EMA it’s very likely that the Euro will try to get to the 1.10 level above.

All things being equal, this is a market that I think is going to make a significant move sooner rather than later, but we need to allow the market to make that first move before we jump in. At this point, it’s essentially a “50-50” opportunity, and therefore if you put on a position right now, you are essentially gambling. At this point, this is probably the last pair that I would be trading over the next 48 hours. That being said, by the end of the week we should have quite a bit of clarity, and therefore I think we’ve got a scenario where we should have more of a longer-term move coming rather quickly. When that happens, it’s likely that we should get a sustainable trade present itself. Until then, keep your powder dry, and wait for the best shot as it sets up.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.