EUR/USD Forex Technical Analysis – Bullish Over 1.1680, Bearish Under 1.1675

The Euro closed lower against the U.S. Dollar last week. The Greenback was primarily supported by stronger-than-expected producer and consumer inflation data which likely kept the Fed on track for further rate hikes later this year. Friday’s weaker-than-expected U.S. consumer confidence data, however, allowed the single-currency to claw back some of its losses from earlier in the week.

Last week, the EUR/USD settled at 1.1687, down 0.0058 or -0.49%.

Weekly Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the weekly swing chart. However, momentum has been trending higher since the formation of the closing price reversal bottom during the week-ending June 22. The double-bottom chart pattern suggests it’s not going to take much to change the trend to up.

The main trend changes to up on a trade through 1.1851. A trade through 1.1509 will negate the closing price reversal bottom and signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The short-term range is 1.1851 to 1.1509. Its 50% level or pivot at 1.1680 appears to be controlling the near-term direction of the EUR/USD.

The main range is 1.2555 to 1.1509. If the trend changes to up then its 50% level at 1.2032 will become the primary upside target.

The 50% level at 1.2166 is a major, long-term upside target.

Weekly Technical Forecast

Based on last week’s close at 1.1687, the direction of the EUR/USD this week is likely to be determined by investor reaction to the pivot at 1.1680.

A sustained move over 1.1680 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move generates enough upside momentum then look for buyers to take a run at 1.1851. Taking out 1.1851 will change the main trend to up with 1.2032 the next major upside target.

A sustained move under 1.1680 will signal the presence of sellers. Crossing to the weak side of the steep downtrending Gann angle at 1.1675 will indicate the selling pressure is getting stronger. This could lead to an eventual test of the main bottom at 1.1509. Look out to the downside if this price fails. The next major target zone is 1.1447 to 1.1185.

The most important area to watch this week is the 50%/Gann angle combination at 1.1680 to 1.1675. Basically, look for an upside bias to develop on a sustained move over 1.1680 and for a downside bias to develop on a sustained move under 1.1675.