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EUR/USD, GBP/USD, DXY Forecast: DXY at $105.47, CPI and Retail Sales in Focus
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Key Points:
- Empire State Manufacturing Index improved to -6.0, boosting the U.S. Dollar Index to $105.47.
- EUR/USD influenced by Final Core CPI at 2.9% and ZEW Economic Sentiment at 47.8.
- US Core Retail Sales and Industrial Production data are pivotal for short-term dollar movement.
On June 17, the Empire State Manufacturing Index reported a figure of -6.0, better than the forecast of -12.5 and a significant improvement from the previous -15.6. This positive surprise boosted the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which now trades at $105.47.
Events Ahead
Looking forward, the Final Core CPI y/y is expected to remain steady at 2.9%, and the Final CPI y/y at 2.6%. Positive outcomes here could lend some support to the Euro. The ZEW Economic Sentiment, forecasted at 47.8, and the German ZEW Economic Sentiment at 49.6, will also play critical roles. Any deviation from these expectations could cause significant movement in the EUR/USD pair.
In the U.S., Core Retail Sales and Retail Sales m/m figures, both forecasted at 0.2% and 0.3% respectively, will be pivotal. Industrial Production is also projected to grow by 0.3%, and the Capacity Utilization Rate is expected to edge higher to 78.6%.
The interplay between the robust dollar and economic data from the Eurozone and the UK will be crucial in shaping the near-term outlook for these currency pairs.
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is currently trading at $105.47. The index is positioned above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $105.29 and the 200-day EMA at $104.95, indicating a bullish trend in the short term.
Immediate resistance is noted at $105.65, followed by $105.81 and $106.00. These levels are critical for determining the potential continuation of the upward trend.
On the downside, immediate support is found at $105.22, with subsequent support levels at $105.03 and $104.85. The pivot point at $105.44 serves as a crucial level for short-term price direction.
A break above the immediate resistance of $105.65 could signal a bullish continuation, while a drop below the pivot point may lead to increased downside pressure.
EUR/USD Technical Forecast
The EUR/USD is currently trading at $1.0735, positioned below both the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1.0765 and the 200-day EMA at $1.0797. This indicates a bearish momentum in the short term. The pivot point at $1.0718 is a crucial level for determining the direction of the next move.
Immediate resistance is found at $1.0760, with subsequent resistance levels at $1.0782 and $1.0812. On the downside, immediate support is identified at $1.0711. If this level is broken, the next support levels are at $1.0667 and $1.0635.
The current price action suggests that a break above the immediate resistance could signal a bullish move, while a drop below the pivot point of $1.0718 may lead to further downside pressure.
GBP/USD Technical Forecast
The GBP/USD is currently trading at $1.2678, positioned below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1.2717 and the 200-day EMA at $1.2726, indicating bearish momentum. The pivot point at $1.2689 is a crucial level for determining the next move.
Immediate resistance levels are at $1.2715, $1.2751, and $1.2775. On the downside, immediate support is found at $1.2655, with subsequent support levels at $1.2634 and $1.2613.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
About the Author
Arslan Aliauthor
Arslan is a finance MBA and also holds an MPhil degree in behavioral finance. An expert in financial analysis and investor psychology, Arslan uses his academic background to bring valuable insights about market sentiment and whether instruments are likely to be overbought or oversold.
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