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EUR/USD, GBP/USD, DXY Price Forecast: DXY at $104.25; Key PMI Data and GDP Ahead
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Key Points:
- UK retail sales dropped 1.2% last Friday, indicating weakening consumer confidence.
- UK Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI forecasts positive, potentially boosting GBP/USD.
- U.S. economic data, including Flash PMI and GDP, to influence Dollar Index this week.
In this article:
Last Friday, UK retail sales fell sharply by 1.2%, against an expected 0.6% decline and a previous 2.9% rise. This significant drop indicates weakening consumer confidence and an economic slowdown, which affected the GBP/USD pair, which saw decreased trading activity.
Events Ahead
This week, Eurozone PMI data will be released, starting with the French Flash Manufacturing PMI forecasted at 45.7 (previous 45.4) and French Flash Services PMI at 49.7 (previous 49.6) on Wednesday.
Germany’s Flash Manufacturing PMI is expected at 44.1 (previous 43.5) and Services PMI at 53.3 (previous 53.1). These figures will provide insights into the health of the Eurozone economy, potentially impacting EUR/USD.
In the UK, the Flash Manufacturing PMI is forecasted at 51.1 (previous 50.9), and the Flash Services PMI at 52.5 (previous 52.1). Positive results could bolster the GBP/USD pair.
In the US, the Flash Manufacturing PMI is expected to hold steady at 51.6, while the Services PMI is forecasted to decrease to 54.5 from 55.3. Additionally, the Advance GDP is anticipated to rise to 1.9% from the previous 1.4%, and unemployment claims are expected to drop slightly to 239K from 243K.
Finally, on Friday, the Core PCE Price Index is forecasted to increase by 0.2% from 0.1%. These US data points will be crucial in determining the Dollar Index’s movement and the broader forex market sentiment.
Technical indicators show a mixed sentiment. The 50-day EMA is at $104.203, and the 200-day EMA is at $104.659. The outlook is bullish above $104.183, but a break below this pivot point could lead to a sharp selling trend.
EUR/USD Technical Forecast
The EUR/USD is trading at $1.08820, up 0.10%. On the 4-hour chart, the pivot point is set at $1.09012. Immediate resistance levels are at $1.09189, $1.09448, and $1.09658. Immediate support is identified at $1.08759, followed by $1.08591 and $1.08435.
Technical indicators show a mixed outlook. The 50-day EMA is at $1.08970, while the 200-day EMA stands at $1.08480, suggesting potential support. The bearish sentiment persists below $1.09012. A break above this pivot point could trigger a bullish shift.
GBP/USD Technical Forecast
About the Author
Arslan Aliauthor
Arslan, a webinar speaker and derivatives analyst, has an MBA in Finance and MPhil in Behavioral Finance. He guides financial analysis, trading, and cryptocurrency forecasting. Expert in trading psychology and sentiment.
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