EUR/USD, GBP/USD, DXY Price Forecast: DXY at 104.406, Can Uptrend Hold?

On July 30, the EUR/USD showed minimal movement, closing at $1.08245, up 0.07%. German Preliminary CPI m/m came in at 0.3%, matching expectations, while Spanish Flash CPI y/y was slightly below forecasts at 2.8%. These figures indicate stable inflation trends in the Eurozone, offering some support to the euro.

In the US, the S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y recorded a 6.8% increase, above expectations of 6.5%, showing strength in the housing market. The CB Consumer Confidence Index rose to 100.3, exceeding the forecast of 99.7, indicating improved consumer sentiment.

JOLTS job openings were slightly lower at 8.18M compared to the previous 8.23M but above the forecast of 8.02M, reflecting a robust labor market.

Events Ahead

Looking ahead to July 31, key events include the Eurozone Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y, expected at 2.8%, and the CPI Flash Estimate y/y, forecasted at 2.5%. These inflation figures will be crucial for the EUR/USD, potentially influencing ECB policy expectations.

In the US, the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change is forecasted at 147K, which could impact the dollar’s strength. The Employment Cost Index q/q is expected at 1.0%, lower than the previous 1.2%, indicating potential easing in wage pressures. The Chicago PMI is forecasted at 44.8, suggesting a contraction in manufacturing activity.

The Federal Reserve’s Federal Funds Rate decision and FOMC statement will be pivotal, with rates expected to remain at 5.50%. Any dovish or hawkish signals could significantly impact the Dollar Index, EUR/USD, and GBP/USD. Pending Home Sales m/m, expected to rise by 1.4%, will also be closely watched as an indicator of housing market trends.