EUR/USD, GBP/USD, DXY Price Forecast: DXY at $105.022, Euro Support Weakens

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Published: Jul 9, 2024, 07:30 GMT+00:00

Key Points:

Germany's Trade Balance exceeded expectations at 24.9 billion EUR, supporting the euro temporarily.
US Consumer Credit m/m rose to 11.4 billion USD, boosting the dollar's strength.
The Sentix Investor Confidence for the Eurozone fell to -7.3, below the expected 0.3.

EUR/USD, GBP/USD, DXY Price Forecast: DXY at $105.022, Euro Support Weakens

Market Overview

On Monday, July 8, Germany’s Trade Balance came in stronger than expected at 24.9 billion EUR, significantly higher than the forecasted 19.9 billion EUR and previous 22.2 billion EUR.

However, the Sentix Investor Confidence for the Eurozone dropped to -7.3, missing the expected 0.3. In the UK, MPC Member Haskel spoke, although details of the speech’s impact on the market were limited.

Over in the US, Consumer Credit m/m increased to 11.4 billion USD, surpassing the expected 9.7 billion USD and previous 6.5 billion USD.

The stronger German Trade Balance provided some support, but weak investor confidence weighed on the euro. Whereas, the robust US Consumer Credit figures bolstered the dollar, reflecting in the Dollar Index (DXY), currently at $105.022.

Events Ahead

Looking ahead to Tuesday, July 9, at 10:00, the USD NFIB Small Business Index is expected, with a forecast of 90.3, slightly below the previous 90.5. This will be followed by several key speeches, including FOMC Member Barr at 13:15, Fed Chair Powell at 14:00, and Treasury Secretary Yellen. Additionally, FOMC Member Bowman will speak at 17:30.

The Dollar Index will also be closely watched, as any signs of economic strength or policy changes could further influence its trajectory.

US Dollar Index (DXY)

Dollar Index Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is currently priced at $105.022 on the 2-hour chart. The pivot point is positioned at $104.907. Immediate resistance levels are set at $105.140, followed by $105.331 and $105.520.

On the downside, immediate support is found at $104.907, with further support levels at $104.774 and $104.642. The 50-day EMA is positioned at $105.173, while the 200-day EMA stands at $105.370.

A downward channel breakout around the $104.907 level on the 2-hour timeframe suggests a potential buying trend.

EUR/USD Technical Forecast

EUR/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

The EUR/USD is currently priced at $1.08234 on the 2-hour chart. The pivot point is positioned at $1.08305. Immediate resistance levels are identified at $1.08463, followed by $1.08615 and $1.08747.

On the downside, immediate support is located at $1.08103, with further support at $1.07986 and $1.07794. The 50-day EMA stands at $1.08034, while the 200-day EMA is positioned at $1.07654.

The current outlook for EUR/USD suggests a bearish trend below the pivot point of $1.08305. If prices remain above this level, there could be potential for bullish momentum.

GBP/USD Technical Forecast

GBP/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

The GBP/USD is currently priced at $1.28079 on the 2-hour chart. The pivot point is positioned at $1.28177. Immediate resistance levels are at $1.28396, $1.28565, and $1.28771.

On the downside, immediate support is found at $1.27843, with further support at $1.27591 and $1.27343. The 50-day EMA is at $1.27674, while the 200-day EMA stands at $1.27147.

The outlook for GBP/USD suggests a bearish trend below the pivot point of $1.28177. If prices remain above this level, there could be potential for bullish momentum. However, a drop below the pivot point reinforces a sell position.

About the Author

Arslan Aliauthor

Arslan is a finance MBA and also holds an MPhil degree in behavioral finance. An expert in financial analysis and investor psychology, Arslan uses his academic background to bring valuable insights about market sentiment and whether instruments are likely to be overbought or oversold.

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