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EUR/USD, GBP/USD, DXY Price Forecast: DXY at $105 as NFP Looms
By:
Key Points:
- Mixed Eurozone data: German industrial production down, French trade balance beats estimates.
- UK housing market: Halifax HPI remains flat in June.
- Focus shifts to US: Non-farm payrolls and Fed speeches in spotlight.
In this article:
Market Overview
The Eurozone saw mixed data this morning. German industrial production unexpectedly plunged by 2.5% in May, exceeding the forecasted 0.1% growth.
Similarly, French industrial production contracted by 0.6%, missing the expected 0.6% expansion. However, French trade balance data surprised positively, with a deficit of €7.2 billion, better than the anticipated €7.6 billion.
In the UK, the Halifax House Price Index remained stagnant in June, aligning with forecasts.
Events Ahead
Looking ahead, the US labor market will be in the spotlight, with the release of average hourly earnings and non-farm payroll data. Economists anticipate a 0.4% increase in average hourly earnings and the addition of 191,000 jobs in June. The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 4.0%.
Additionally, the Federal Reserve will release its semi-annual Monetary Policy Report, offering insights into the central bank’s thinking. Furthermore, speeches by Fed Governor Williams and ECB President Lagarde will be closely watched for any hints about future monetary policy decisions.
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is currently trading at $105.003, reflecting a slight 0.12% decline. While the index remains above key support levels at $104.893, $104.774, and $104.642, it faces a crucial pivot point at $105.169.
A break below this pivot could trigger a bearish trend, while a successful hold above it might signal renewed bullish momentum with potential targets at $105.414, $105.597, and $105.816.
The 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMAs), positioned at $105.430 and $105.458, respectively, suggest a cautious outlook for the DXY in the near term.
EUR/USD Technical Forecast
he GBP/USD pair is exhibiting a bullish bias, currently trading at $1.27718, a slight 0.09% increase. The pair sits above a critical pivot point of $1.2753, indicating potential for further gains. Traders should monitor key resistance levels at $1.2788, $1.2807, and $1.2827.
Conversely, a break below the pivot point could trigger a downward reversal, potentially leading to a selling trend with support levels at $1.2734, $1.2714, and $1.2692. The 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMAs) at $1.2717 and $1.2695, respectively, further support the current bullish outlook.
About the Author
Arslan Aliauthor
Arslan, a webinar speaker and derivatives analyst, has an MBA in Finance and MPhil in Behavioral Finance. He guides financial analysis, trading, and cryptocurrency forecasting. Expert in trading psychology and sentiment.
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