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EUR/USD, GBP/USD, DXY Price Forecast: DXY Falls Below 105.50; Major Sell-off Looming?
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Key Points:
- Core PCE Price Index for the U.S. increased by 0.1%, meeting expectations but below previous 0.3%.
- Chicago PMI rose to 47.4 from 39.7, indicating improving U.S. business conditions.
- Germany's Preliminary CPI is forecasted to rise by 0.2%, potentially strengthening the euro.
In this article:
The Chicago PMI surprised markets with a rise to 47.4 from 39.7, indicating improving business conditions. Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment also showed an uptick to 68.2, above the previous 65.6.
In Europe, the French Preliminary CPI remained steady at 0.1%, while Spain’s Flash CPI decreased slightly to 3.4% from 3.6%, aligning with forecasts. These data points had mixed impacts on the EUR/USD pair, which saw cautious trading.
Events Ahead
Looking forward to July 1, Germany’s Preliminary CPI is forecasted to rise by 0.2%, potentially strengthening the euro if it meets or exceeds expectations.
In the U.S., the Final Manufacturing PMI is anticipated to hold at 51.7, and the ISM Manufacturing PMI is forecasted to improve to 49.2.
These figures could support the Dollar Index, currently at $105.605, if they indicate a stronger manufacturing sector.
ECB President Lagarde’s speech will be closely watched for insights into future monetary policy, which could further influence the EUR/USD.
The Dollar Index is trading at $105.605, reflecting a 0.27% decline. The pivot point is positioned at $105.541. Key resistance levels are identified at $105.782, $105.958, and $106.134. On the support side, levels are set at $105.371, $105.206, and $105.052.
The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) stands at $105.791, while the 200-day EMA is at $105.444. The market sentiment is bullish above the pivot point of $105.541. A break below this level could indicate a sharp selling trend.
EUR/USD Technical Forecast
The GBP/USD pair is currently trading at $1.26584, showing a 0.13% increase. Key levels to watch include the pivot point at $1.2652. Immediate resistance levels are at $1.2671, $1.2701, and $1.2732. On the support side, levels are identified at $1.2631, $1.2612, and $1.2587.
The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is positioned at $1.2652, closely aligning with the pivot point, while the 200-day EMA stands at $1.2685. The market sentiment remains bullish above $1.2652, with a break below this level potentially leading to a sharp selling trend.
About the Author
Arslan Aliauthor
Arslan, a webinar speaker and derivatives analyst, has an MBA in Finance and MPhil in Behavioral Finance. He guides financial analysis, trading, and cryptocurrency forecasting. Expert in trading psychology and sentiment.
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