EUR/USD, GBP/USD, DXY Price Forecast: DXY Finds Support Near $105.50; Buy Now?

By:

Arslan Ali

Published: Apr 30, 2024, 08:13 GMT+00:00

Key Points:

French consumer spending rises to 0.4%; Eurozone's economic indicators mildly positive.
German retail sales surge by 1.8%, signaling robust consumer activity in Eurozone.
UK mortgage approvals increase, hinting at growing confidence in the housing market.

In this article:

EUR/USD

-0.47%

GBP/USD

-0.22%

Market Overview

Recently, the EUR/USD reacted to several key economic indicators from the Eurozone. French consumer spending saw a slight uptick, reporting a 0.4% increase month-over-month, which was better than the expected 0.2%. Additionally, French GDP for the quarter rose by 0.2%, signaling modest economic growth.

In Germany, retail sales notably surged by 1.8% month-over-month, reflecting a significant recovery in consumer activity and potentially setting a positive tone for the Eurozone’s economic outlook.

For the GBP/USD, UK-specific economic indicators also painted a complex picture. The British Retail Consortium (BRC) Shop Price Index increased by 0.8% year-over-year, pointing to sustained inflationary pressures.

Mortgage approvals in the UK also edged higher to 61,000, up from 60,000 the previous month, suggesting a tentative confidence in the housing market.

Events Ahead

The EUR/USD pair looks forward to the release of the Core CPI Flash Estimate, anticipated at 2.6% year-over-year, which could provide insights into inflation trends and influence European Central Bank policies. Additionally, the Preliminary Flash GDP for the Eurozone is expected to show a modest 0.1% growth quarter-over-quarter.

For the GBP/USD, upcoming economic reports include the M4 Money Supply, expected to grow by 0.4% month-over-month, and Net Lending to Individuals, which previously stood at £1.7 billion. These indicators will offer further clarity on the UK’s financial health and could sway Bank of England policy decisions.

US Dollar Index (DXY)

Dollar Index

The Dollar Index, rose modestly to 105.839, marking a 0.18% increase. Currently positioned above the pivot point at 105.521, the index suggests a bullish sentiment in the short term. Should it maintain levels above this pivot, further gains could be seen with immediate resistance points at 106.111, 106.536, and 107.097.

Conversely, should the index dip below 105.521, it may encounter significant selling pressure, with support levels identified at 104.901, 104.434, and 103.865, which could potentially stabilize further declines.

Technical analysis shows the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 105.789 and the 200-Day EMA at 105.081, both reinforcing the current bullish trajectory of the Dollar Index.

EUR/USD Technical Forecast

EUR/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

The EUR/USD exchange rate fell slightly to 1.07044, reflecting a decline of 0.15%. The pair is hovering just above its pivot point at 1.07029, which could indicate potential for either a rebound or further losses depending on upcoming trading sessions.

Immediate resistance is located at 1.07351, with subsequent barriers at 1.07658 and 1.07926. Should the currency pair rise past these marks, it may signal strengthening of the Euro against the Dollar. Conversely, support levels are set at 1.06658, 1.06311, and 1.06029, which could act as cushions if the pair continues to fall.

The technical setup, with the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.06998 just below the current price and the 200-Day EMA at 1.07512, suggests a cautious outlook. A sustained move above 1.07029 could affirm a bullish bias, while a drop below could lead to increased selling activity.

GBP/USD Technical Forecast

GBP/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

The GBP/USD is trading at 1.25444, a slight decrease of 0.14% from the previous day. The pair is currently hovering slightly above its pivot point of 1.25228, suggesting potential volatility.

Resistance levels are placed at 1.25786, 1.26401, and 1.27087, which could cap upward movements if the pair gains momentum. On the downside, support is established at 1.24742, followed by 1.24163 and 1.23656, levels that might contain further declines.

The technical analysis shows the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.24863, supporting the pair near current prices, while the 200-Day EMA at 1.25521 is slightly above, indicating a critical juncture. A sustained position above 1.25228 may foster bullish sentiment, but falling below could trigger a significant sell-off.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

About the Author

Arslan Aliauthor

Arslan is a finance MBA and also holds an MPhil degree in behavioral finance. An expert in financial analysis and investor psychology, Arslan uses his academic background to bring valuable insights about market sentiment and whether instruments are likely to be overbought or oversold.