EUR/USD, GBP/USD, DXY Price Forecast: DXY Holds Above $104; More Gains Ahead?

By:

Arslan Ali

Updated: Jul 23, 2024, 06:43 GMT+00:00

Key Points:

UK retail sales fell 1.2%, sharper than expected, impacting GBP/USD, now at $1.29283.
Eurozone consumer confidence expected at -13, could boost EUR/USD, currently at $1.08907.
US data releases key for Dollar Index, trading at $104.232, down 0.05%.

In this article:

EUR/USD

+0.18%

GBP/USD

+0.21%

Market Overview

Last Friday, UK retail sales data showed a sharper decline than expected, falling by 1.2% compared to the forecasted -0.6%, and significantly lower than the previous month’s 2.9% rise.

This decline has put additional pressure on the GBP/USD, which is currently trading at $1.29283, down 0.03%. The market reacted to this data, reflecting concerns about consumer spending and economic health in the UK.

Events Ahead

Looking ahead, today’s economic data includes Eurozone consumer confidence, expected at -13, an improvement from the previous -14. This data could influence the EUR/USD, which is currently trading at $1.08907, up 0.02%. A better-than-expected consumer confidence reading could provide a boost to the euro.

In the US, key data releases include Existing Home Sales, forecasted at 3.99 million compared to the previous 4.11 million, and the Richmond Manufacturing Index, expected to improve to -7 from -10.

These figures will be crucial for the Dollar Index, currently at $104.232, down 0.05%. If the data meets or exceeds expectations, we could see a recovery in the dollar, impacting both EUR/USD and GBP/USD pairs.

US Dollar Index (DXY)

Dollar Index Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

The Dollar Index (DXY) is trading at $104.232, slightly down by 0.05%. On the 2-hour chart, the pivot point is at $104.183, a critical level for market direction. Immediate resistance levels are $104.423, $104.621, and $104.862. Immediate support is found at $103.961, followed by $103.651 and $103.406.

Technical indicators suggest mixed signals. The 50-day EMA is at $104.234, while the 200-day EMA stands at $104.621. The outlook remains bullish above the pivot point of $104.183. A break below this level could trigger a sharp selling trend.

EUR/USD Technical Forecast

EUR/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

The EUR/USD pair is currently trading at $1.08907, reflecting a modest gain of 0.02%. On the 2-hour chart, the pivot point is set at $1.09012, a crucial level for determining market direction. Immediate resistance levels are $1.09189, $1.09448, and $1.09658. Immediate support is identified at $1.08759, followed by $1.08591 and $1.08435.

Technical indicators show mixed signals. The 50-day EMA is at $1.08939, while the 200-day EMA is at $1.08521. These figures suggest a bearish outlook below the pivot point of $1.09012.

A break above this level could boost bullish momentum while remaining below it continues the bearish sentiment.

GBP/USD Technical Forecast

GBP/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

The GBP/USD pair is trading at $1.29283, slightly down by 0.03%. On the 2-hour chart, the pivot point is at $1.29405, a crucial level for market direction. Immediate resistance levels are $1.29629, $1.29908, and $1.30269. Immediate support is found at $1.29025, followed by $1.28748 and $1.28459.

Technical indicators present mixed signals. The 50-day EMA stands at $1.29389, while the 200-day EMA is at $1.28705. The outlook remains bearish below the pivot point of $1.29405. A break above this level could shift the sentiment to a bullish bias.

About the Author

Arslan Aliauthor

Arslan is a finance MBA and also holds an MPhil degree in behavioral finance. An expert in financial analysis and investor psychology, Arslan uses his academic background to bring valuable insights about market sentiment and whether instruments are likely to be overbought or oversold.

Did you find this article useful?