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EUR/USD, GBP/USD, DXY Price Forecast: DXY Jumps Above $104.30; Buy Now?
By:
Key Points:
- Italian Trade Balance and Eurozone Trade Balance figures to be released.
- U.S. retail sales data due, with Core Retail Sales expected to rise by 0.1%.
- ZEW Economic Sentiment indicators expected to show slight declines, affecting the Euro.
In this article:
On Monday, July 15, the Eurozone Industrial Production fell by 0.6%, slightly better than the forecasted decline of 0.9%, but still concerning given the previous month’s flat growth. Eurogroup Meetings did not provide much market movement, but all eyes were on the U.S. data.
The Empire State Manufacturing Index dropped to -6.6, worse than the anticipated -6.0, indicating weaker manufacturing activity.
Additionally, Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments suggested a cautious stance on future rate cuts, adding some uncertainty to the Dollar Index, which edged up 0.07% to 104.33.
Events Ahead
Looking ahead to Tuesday, July 16, the Italian Trade Balance and broader Eurozone Trade Balance figures will be released, with forecasts of 3.55 billion euros and 18.0 billion euros, respectively. Economic sentiment indicators, including the ZEW Economic Sentiment and German ZEW Economic Sentiment, are expected to show slight declines, potentially affecting the Euro.
In the U.S., retail sales data is due, with Core Retail Sales expected to rise by 0.1% and overall Retail Sales predicted to decline by 0.3%.
These figures, along with import prices and business inventories, will likely influence the Dollar Index.
Support levels are $104.050, $103.909, and $103.782. The 50-day EMA stands at $104.472, while the 200-day EMA is $104.998. A bullish outlook is maintained above the pivot point of $104.238, with potential upward movement toward the resistance levels.
Conversely, a break below $104.238 could initiate a significant selling trend.
EUR/USD Technical Forecast
The EUR/USD is trading at $1.08922, down 0.02%. The 4-hour chart shows a pivot point at $1.08968. Immediate resistance levels are $1.09114, $1.09274, and $1.09431. Support levels are at $1.08807, $1.08623, and $1.08443.
The 50-day EMA is $1.08736, and the 200-day EMA is $1.08121. A bearish outlook prevails below the pivot point of $1.08968, suggesting further declines if the level is breached.
Conversely, a break above this pivot point could shift sentiment towards a bullish bias.
GBP/USD Technical Forecast
About the Author
Arslan Aliauthor
Arslan, a webinar speaker and derivatives analyst, has an MBA in Finance and MPhil in Behavioral Finance. He guides financial analysis, trading, and cryptocurrency forecasting. Expert in trading psychology and sentiment.
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