EUR/USD, GBP/USD, DXY Price Forecast: DXY Nears $103 – Is a Drop Imminent?

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Published: Aug 8, 2024, 07:00 GMT+00:00

Key Points:

German Industrial Production rose by 1.4%, beating the 1.0% forecast.
UK Halifax House Price Index increased by 0.8%, supporting GBP/USD.
US Crude Oil Inventories fell by 3.7M barrels, indicating higher demand.

EUR/USD, GBP/USD, DXY Price Forecast: DXY Nears $103 – Is a Drop Imminent?

On Wednesday, August 7, German Industrial Production rose by 1.4%, surpassing the forecast of 1.0%, a recovery from the previous month’s -3.1%. However, the German Trade Balance showed a decline to 20.4B, lower than the expected 21.7B and the previous 25.3B, indicating weaker export activity. French Trade Balance improved slightly but remained negative at -6.1B, better than the forecasted -7.5B.

In the UK, the Halifax House Price Index (HPI) increased by 0.8%, significantly higher than the expected 0.2% and the previous 0.0%. This positive data helped support the GBP/USD. The RICS House Price Balance, however, dropped to -19%, missing the forecast of -12%.

In the US, Crude Oil Inventories fell by 3.7M barrels, more than the expected -1.6M, suggesting higher demand. The 10-year Bond Auction yielded 3.96% with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.3. Consumer Credit increased by 8.9B, lower than the forecast of 9.8B and the previous 13.9B, indicating cautious consumer spending.

Events Ahead

On Thursday, August 8, upcoming events will likely influence market movements. The USD is in focus with several key data releases. At 12:30, Unemployment Claims are expected to be 241K, slightly better than the previous 249 K.

At 14:00, Final Wholesale Inventories are anticipated to remain unchanged at 0.2%. Mortgage Delinquencies are tentatively set to show a 3.94% rate.

At 14:30, Natural Gas Storage data will be released, with an expected increase of 22B, up from the previous 18B. The 30-year Bond Auction at 17:01 will be closely watched. It had a previous yield of 4.41% and a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.3.

Finally, at 19:00, FOMC Member Barkin’s speech may provide insights into future monetary policy.

US Dollar Index (DXY)

Dollar Index Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

The Dollar Index (DXY) is trading at $103.011, up 0.36%. The 4-hour chart highlights a pivot point at $103.298. Immediate resistance levels are $103.568, $103.960, and $104.450.

On the downside, immediate support is at $102.710, followed by $102.153 and $101.820. The 50-day EMA stands at $103.514, while the 200-day EMA is at $104.291, indicating a bearish trend below the pivot point.

The outlook is bearish below $103.298, but a break above this level could signal a bullish shift.

EUR/USD Technical Forecast

EUR/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

The EUR/USD is trading at $1.09344, up 0.09%. The 4-hour chart shows a pivot point at $1.09211. Immediate resistance levels are $1.09550, $1.10094, and $1.10547.

On the downside, immediate support is found at $1.08925, followed by $1.08647 and $1.08267. The 50-day EMA is at $1.08907, and the 200-day EMA is at $1.08474, indicating bullish momentum.

The outlook remains positive above the pivot point of $1.09211, but a break below this level could trigger a sharp selling trend.

GBP/USD Technical Forecast

GBP/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

The GBP/USD is trading at $1.26967, up 0.04%. The 4-hour chart shows a pivot point at $1.27246. Immediate resistance levels are $1.27729, $1.28071, and $1.28413.

On the downside, immediate support is at $1.26778, followed by $1.26465 and $1.26161.

The 50-day EMA is at $1.27744, and the 200-day EMA is at $1.28036, suggesting bearish momentum. The outlook remains bullish above the support level of $1.26778, but a break below this level could trigger a sharp selling trend.

About the Author

Arslan Aliauthor

Arslan, a webinar speaker and derivatives analyst, has an MBA in Finance and MPhil in Behavioral Finance. He guides financial analysis, trading, and cryptocurrency forecasting. Expert in trading psychology and sentiment.