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EUR/USD, GBP/USD, DXY Price Forecast: DXY Nears $105; Eyes on US NFP Report
By:
Key Points:
- German Factory Orders are forecasted to drop by 1.6% in July.
- UK Parliamentary Elections and Construction PMI reports will influence GBP/USD.
- ECB President Lagarde’s speech will impact EUR/USD market movements.
In this article:
Market Overview
On July 3, key economic indicators impacted the currency markets. The ADP Non-Farm Employment Change reported an increase of 150K jobs, below the forecasted 163K but slightly down from the previous 157K. Additionally, unemployment claims rose to 238K, higher than the expected 234K.
The Final Services PMI came in at 55.3, just above the forecasted 55.0. However, the ISM Services PMI dropped significantly to 48.8, well below the expected 52.6, indicating contraction. These figures suggest a mixed economic outlook for the U.S., potentially impacting the Dollar Index, which is currently at $105.274, up 0.01%.
Events Ahead
Looking forward to July 4, German Factory Orders are forecasted to drop by 1.6% compared to the previous month’s -0.6%. The UK Parliamentary Elections and various economic reports, including Construction PMI and Housing Equity Withdrawal, will also be closely watched. The GBP/USD is currently trading at $1.27484, up 0.02%, and these events could significantly impact its movement.
In the Eurozone, the ECB President Lagarde’s speech and the ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts will be crucial. The EUR/USD is trading at $1.07917, up 0.01%. Overall, the mixed economic data from the U.S. and upcoming events in Europe and the UK suggest potential volatility in the currency markets.
The Dollar Index is trading at $105.274, up 0.01%. The 4-hour chart identifies a pivot point at $105.409. Immediate resistance is at $105.604, followed by $105.816 and $106.059. Support levels are $105.052, $104.893, and $104.733.
Technical indicators show the 50 EMA at $105.613 and the 200 EMA at $105.500, suggesting a bearish trend below the pivot point. The Dollar Index remains bearish below $105.409, but a break above this level could shift the bias to bullish.
EUR/USD Technical Forecast
The GBP/USD is trading at $1.27484, up 0.02%. The 4-hour chart identifies a pivot point at $1.27344. Immediate resistance is at $1.27769, followed by $1.27936 and $1.28132. Support levels are $1.27138, $1.26915, and $1.26615.
Technical indicators show the 50 EMA at $1.26901 and the 200 EMA at $1.26863, suggesting a bullish trend. GBP/USD remains bullish above $1.27344, but a break below this level could trigger a sharp selling trend.
About the Author
Arslan Aliauthor
Arslan, a webinar speaker and derivatives analyst, has an MBA in Finance and MPhil in Behavioral Finance. He guides financial analysis, trading, and cryptocurrency forecasting. Expert in trading psychology and sentiment.
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