EUR/USD, GBP/USD, DXY Price Forecast: DXY on the Rise, Sell EUR and GBP Today?

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Updated: Apr 12, 2024, 07:50 GMT+00:00

Key Points:

U.S. PPI data remains stable at 0.2%, tempering expectations for rapid Fed rate hikes.
German and French CPI consistent, indicating stable Eurozone inflation pressures.
UK's mixed economic signals show modest GDP growth but contractions in key sectors.

Market Overview

In the United States, recent Producer Price Index (PPI) data showed inflation pressures remain subdued, with monthly figures holding steady at 0.2%, aligning with predictions. This has tempered expectations for immediate aggressive rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. Meanwhile, the unemployment claims slightly decreased to 211,000, suggesting resilience in the labor market.

In Europe, economic indicators such as the German Final Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained consistent at 0.4%, indicating stable inflationary pressures within the economy. Similarly, the French CPI met expectations at 0.2%, underscoring a controlled inflation environment which might influence the European Central Bank’s monetary policy stance.

In the UK, economic data presented a mixed picture: while GDP growth was modest at 0.1%, signs of contraction were visible in construction output and manufacturing production, highlighting challenges within specific sectors.

Events Ahead

For the USD, key focus areas include the Import Prices, Preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, and remarks from FOMC members Bostic and Daly, which could provide insights into future monetary policy directions.

The Eurozone’s economic discourse will be shaped by the ECOFIN meetings, potentially affecting the EUR/USD dynamics depending on fiscal policy discussions and decisions.

For the GBP, the NIESR GDP Estimate will be pivotal in providing a snapshot of the UK’s current economic health.

US Dollar Index (DXY)

Dollar Index

Today’s technical analysis of the Dollar Index highlights a notable uptick to 105.68, marking a 0.40% increase. Positioned at a pivot point of $105.12, the index exhibits a bullish stance. Immediate resistance is identified at $105.98, with further ceilings at $106.28 and $106.63 potentially hindering upward momentum. Support levels are more robust, beginning at $104.81 and extending downwards to $104.49 and $104.02, providing crucial buffers against declines.

Both the 50-Day and 200-Day Exponential Moving Averages, positioned at $104.67 and $104.14 respectively, support the ongoing bullish trend. The outlook suggests maintaining above $105.12 will likely sustain bullish momentum, while a dip below this threshold may trigger a significant sell-off.

EUR/USD Technical Forecast

EUR/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

Today’s technical outlook for EUR/USD shows the currency pair trading lower at 1.06783, down by 0.45%. The key pivot point is established at 1.07276, with the pair currently exhibiting a bearish trend below this mark.

Immediate resistance is seen at 1.07675, with additional barriers at 1.08111 and 1.08719 that could limit upward moves. Support levels are identified at 1.06947, followed by 1.06551 and 1.06193, providing potential stabilization points if declines continue.

The 50-Day and 200-Day Exponential Moving Averages, at 1.07933 and 1.08274 respectively, further suggest a bearish sentiment. The outlook remains bearish as long as EUR/USD stays below $1.07276, with a breach above potentially reversing this trend.

GBP/USD Technical Forecast

GBP/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

Today’s technical analysis for GBP/USD shows the currency pair trading lower at 1.25093, a decrease of 0.34%. The pivotal level for today is set at 1.2521. The pair remains bearish below this pivot point.

Immediate resistance is located at 1.2566, with further thresholds at 1.2592 and 1.2638, challenging any upward trends. Support appears at 1.2484, with additional support levels at 1.2449 and 1.2403, which may provide a cushion against further declines.

The 50-Day and 200-Day Exponential Moving Averages, at 1.2606 and 1.2649 respectively, suggest underlying bearish pressure. The outlook indicates that staying below $1.2521 keeps the bearish trend intact, while a break above this level could shift momentum towards a more bullish stance.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

About the Author

Arslan Aliauthor

Arslan, a webinar speaker and derivatives analyst, has an MBA in Finance and MPhil in Behavioral Finance. He guides financial analysis, trading, and cryptocurrency forecasting. Expert in trading psychology and sentiment.