Last Friday, the German Wholesale Price Index (WPI) came in at -0.3%, missing the forecasted 0.2%, reflecting weaker economic activity. Meanwhile, the French Final Consumer Price Index (CPI) met expectations at 0.1%, providing no surprises to the market.
In the U.S., Core Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 0.4%, exceeding the expected 0.2%, while the headline PPI increased by 0.2%, beating the 0.1% forecast.
However, the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment dropped to 66.0, below the expected 68.5, and inflation expectations fell to 2.9%, slightly below the previous 3.0%. These mixed signals have kept the Dollar Index relatively stable, closing at $104.28, up 0.13%.
Looking ahead, the EUR/USD will be influenced by the Eurozone’s Industrial Production data, forecasted to decline by 0.9%. Additionally, Eurogroup meetings will likely shape sentiment around the euro.
In the U.S., the Empire State Manufacturing Index is anticipated to slightly improve to -5.5 from -6.0. The most significant event will be Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech, which could provide insights into the Federal Reserve’s future monetary policy direction.
The EUR/USD is currently trading at $1.08879, down 0.10%. On the 2-hour chart, the pivot point is at $1.08968. Immediate resistance levels are at $1.09114, $1.09274, and $1.09431, while immediate support levels are at $1.08807, $1.08623, and $1.08443.
Technical indicators show the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1.08588 and the 200-day EMA at $1.08017. The outlook remains bearish below $1.08968, indicating potential downward pressure. However, a break above this level could signal a bullish bias.
Arslan, a webinar speaker and derivatives analyst, has an MBA in Finance and MPhil in Behavioral Finance. He guides financial analysis, trading, and cryptocurrency forecasting. Expert in trading psychology and sentiment.