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EUR/USD, GBP/USD, DXY Price Forecast: DXY Surges to $104.45; Big Moves Ahead?
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Key Points:
- US Core PCE Price Index rose 0.2%, supporting potential Fed rate cuts, impacting the USD.
- University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment slightly higher at 66.4, stabilizing Dollar Index around 101.50.
- CBI Realized Sales projected to improve to -20; BRC Shop Price Index to hold at 0.2%.
In this article:
Last week, the US Core PCE Price Index matched expectations with a 0.2% increase, steadying from the previous 0.1%. This modest inflation data supports the idea of the Federal Reserve potentially cutting rates, which has impacted the US Dollar.
The Revised University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment also came in slightly higher at 66.4, up from the expected 66.3. These data points have kept the Dollar Index relatively stable, trading around 101.50.
Events Ahead
Looking forward, significant data releases are on the horizon, particularly from the UK. On Monday, July 29th, at 8:30 AM GMT, we’ll see the release of the M4 Money Supply m/m, which is expected to rise by 0.2%, up from the previous -0.1%.
Additionally, mortgage approvals are forecasted to remain steady at 60K, while net lending to individuals is expected to drop to 2.2B from 2.7B.
The CBI Realized Sales at 10:00 AM are projected to improve slightly to -20 from -24, and the BRC Shop Price Index y/y is due at 23:01, anticipated to hold at 0.2%.
These upcoming releases could have notable impacts on GBP/USD. If the data comes in stronger than expected, we might see GBP/USD strengthen beyond its current level of 1.2850. Conversely, weaker data could push it lower.
The outlook remains bullish above the pivot point of $104.352. A break below this level could trigger a sharp selling trend. Conversely, maintaining above $104.352 supports the bullish outlook.
EUR/USD Technical Forecast
On the 4-hour chart, EUR/USD is currently priced at $1.08431, up 0.04%. Key price levels include a pivot point at $1.08674. Immediate resistance levels are $1.09033, $1.09216, and $1.09448. Support levels are $1.08246, $1.08052, and $1.07818. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is at $1.08638, and the 200-day EMA is at $1.08295.
The downward trendline presents resistance near $1.08674. The outlook remains bearish below this pivot point. A break above $1.08674 could shift the sentiment to bullish, driving prices higher. Conversely, maintaining below $1.08674 reinforces the bearish outlook.
GBP/USD Technical Forecast
About the Author
Arslan Aliauthor
Arslan, a webinar speaker and derivatives analyst, has an MBA in Finance and MPhil in Behavioral Finance. He guides financial analysis, trading, and cryptocurrency forecasting. Expert in trading psychology and sentiment.
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