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EUR/USD, GBP/USD, DXY Price Forecast: EUR Nears $1.0715 Before Inflation Figures

By:
Arslan Ali
Published: Jul 2, 2024, 08:23 GMT+00:00

Key Points:

  • German Preliminary CPI at 0.1% pressured the Euro, missing the forecast of 0.2%.
  • ISM Manufacturing PMI dropped to 48.5, indicating a contraction in the U.S. manufacturing sector.
  • Dollar Index trades at $105.99, down 0.27%, with mixed technical signals for support and resistance.
EUR/USD, GBP/USD, DXY Price Forecast: EUR Nears $1.0715 Before Inflation Figures

In this article:

Market Overview

On Monday, July 1, the German Preliminary CPI m/m came in at 0.1%, missing the forecast of 0.2%, which pressured the Euro (EUR). In the U.S., the Final Manufacturing PMI was 51.6, slightly below the expected 51.7. The ISM Manufacturing PMI dropped to 48.5, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector, which was worse than the forecast of 49.2.

Additionally, the ISM Manufacturing Prices fell to 52.1 from 57.0, showing easing inflationary pressures. These figures influenced the Dollar Index, which is trading at $105.99, down 0.27%. European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde’s speech also added volatility to the Euro.

Events Ahead

Looking ahead to Tuesday, July 2, markets will focus on the Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y for the Eurozone, expected to be 2.8%, and the CPI Flash Estimate y/y, forecasted at 2.5%.

These inflation figures will be crucial for the EUR/USD, which is currently trading at $1.07167, up 0.44%. ECB President Lagarde will speak again, potentially impacting the Euro further.

In the U.S., all eyes will be on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech and the JOLTS Job Openings report, expected to show 7.96 million openings.

US Dollar Index (DXY)

Dollar Index Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
Dollar Index Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

The Dollar Index is trading at $105.99, down 0.27%. On the 2-hour chart, the pivot point is $105.798. Immediate resistance levels are $106.134, $106.261, and $106.401. Immediate support is at $105.650, followed by $105.426 and $105.254.

Technical indicators show mixed signals. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is at $105.811, and the 200-day EMA is at $105.491. This suggests potential support around these levels. The outlook for the Dollar Index is bullish above $105.798.

EUR/USD Technical Forecast

EUR/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
EUR/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

About the Author

Arslan, a webinar speaker and derivatives analyst, has an MBA in Finance and MPhil in Behavioral Finance. He guides financial analysis, trading, and cryptocurrency forecasting. Expert in trading psychology and sentiment.

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