EUR/USD, GBP/USD, DXY Price Forecast: Euro and Pound Await MPC Speeches

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Published: Mar 11, 2024, 07:28 GMT+00:00

Key Points:

Dollar Index retreats by 0.02%, standing at 102.724, pivoting at 102.34 for technical sentiment.
EUR/USD pair sees a 0.06% decrease, with a pivotal point at 1.09336.
GBP/USD registers a slight 0.01% decline, maintaining a pivot at 1.28439 for directional cues.

EUR/USD, GBP/USD, DXY Price Forecast: Euro and Pound Await MPC Speeches

EUR/USD and GBP/USD Price Forecast: Analysis and Events Ahead

The Dollar Index’s nuanced fluctuations hint at broader economic trends, with the U.S. reporting a 0.1% increase in average hourly earnings, a substantial 275K jump in non-farm employment, and a 3.9% unemployment rate.

The EUR/USD pair reacts to European economic indicators, such as a 1.0% rise in German Industrial Production and a static revised GDP at 0.0%. The GBP/USD pair closely monitors the UK’s economic pulse, with attention turning towards future policy directions indicated by MPC member speeches.

Events Ahead

Crucially, the EUR/USD pair looks towards the Eurogroup Meetings for guidance on financial policies affecting the euro area, potentially influencing currency strength. Similarly, the GBP/USD pair awaits insights from MPC Member Mann’s speech, anticipated to impact the pound’s trajectory.

US Dollar Index (DXY)

Dollar Index

The Dollar Index modestly retreated by 0.02%, landing at 102.724 today. Within the 4-hour chart framework, the Index finds its pivot at 102.34, laying the groundwork for the day’s technical trajectory.

Resistance is staged at incremental elevations: 102.76, 103.28, and peaking at 103.90, delineating the uphill battle for gains. Conversely, support levels are entrenched at 101.93, with further backstops at 101.53 and 101.02, marking potential rebound territories.

With the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) slightly below the current price at 103.00 and the 200-Day EMA at 103.28, the Index teeters on the cusp of a bullish trend. Should it maintain ground above the pivot point of 102.34, the outlook remains favorably bullish; however, slipping below this threshold could trigger a sell-off.

EUR/USD Technical Forecast

EUR/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

The EUR/USD pair edges down by 0.06%, marking the price at 1.09403. The 4-hour chart delineates a pivot point at 1.09336, signifying a crucial threshold for today’s trading sentiment. Resistance is seen escalating at 1.09540, followed by 1.09803 and 1.09971, each marking potential hurdles for upward momentum.

Support, on the other hand, aligns at 1.09208, doubling as both immediate and next support due to the narrow range, with a further cushion at 1.09008 indicating levels where buyers may re-enter.

The 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.09096 and the 200-Day EMA at 1.08541 both underscore a prevailing bullish trend, albeit the current price teeters near the pivot, suggesting a delicate balance.

Thus, maintaining above 1.09336 suggests a bullish stance, whereas a descent below this juncture could precipitate a selling wave.

GBP/USD Technical Forecast

GBP/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

The GBP/USD pair slightly declined by 0.01%, positioning at 1.28535. In today’s 4-hour chart analysis, the pivot point is marked at 1.28439, suggesting a critical level for directional bias.

The currency pair faces immediate resistance at 1.28932, with further barriers set at 1.29284 and 1.29642, indicating the key thresholds for upward movement. On the downside, support levels are identified at 1.28024, followed by 1.27638 and 1.27229, providing potential rebound zones.

The 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.27801 and the 200-Day EMA at 1.26982 both hint at an underlying bullish trend. The current pricing, hovering slightly above the pivot, indicates a cautiously bullish outlook. Remaining above 1.28439 supports a continued bullish perspective, while a break below this point could signal the onset of a sharper selling trend.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

About the Author

Arslan Aliauthor

Arslan, a webinar speaker and derivatives analyst, has an MBA in Finance and MPhil in Behavioral Finance. He guides financial analysis, trading, and cryptocurrency forecasting. Expert in trading psychology and sentiment.