EUR/USD Mid-Session Technical Analysis for November 15, 2021

The Euro is inching higher on Monday but struggling to hold on to its limited gains after European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said persistent supply chain bottlenecks and soaring energy costs are slowing Euro Zone growth and will keep inflation high for even longer than had been thought.

The price action indicates the market was not impressed by Lagarde’s comments because it likely means the European Central Bank (ECB) will maintain its accommodative policy for a long time rather than risk damaging economic growth with an ill-timed rate hike.

At 11:22 GMT, the EUR/USD is trading 1.1447, up 0.0003 or +0.03%.

The ECB has banked on a rapid decline in inflation next year but policymakers are now openly admitting that their forecasts, already revised up several times, are still too low, as stress in the global economy takes a toll.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 1.1433 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. A move through 1.1608 will change the main trend to up.

The minor range is 1.1608 to 1.1433. Its 50% level at 1.1521 is the nearest resistance. This is followed by two more potential resistance targets at 1.1563 and 1.1594. The latter is the last before the 1.1608 main top.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the EUR/USD on Monday will be determined by trader reaction to 1.1449.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 1.1449 will indicate the presence of sellers. This should lead to a quick test of 1.1433. Taking out this level could trigger an acceleration into the July 16, 2020 main bottom at 1.1371.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 1.1449 will signal the presence of buyers. Taking out the intraday high at 1.1464 will indicate the buying is getting stronger. If the volume is right, this could trigger an acceleration into the first pivot at 1.1521.