EUR/USD, USD/JPY and AUD/USD Forecast – Euro and Aussie to Bounce?

EUR/USD Technical Analysis – A Bounce in the Making?

The euro fell a little bit during the early hours of Wednesday but has turned around to show signs of life again.

By doing so, it looks like we are going to try to bounce enough to challenge the 200 day EMA, and if we can get above there, then it could be the beginning of the recovery. Now, whether or not that actually ends up being the case, we’ll have to wait and see, but I also recognize that even if we do rally, the 1.10 level is going to be very difficult to get above. So, I think this might be a little bit of a relief rally. Whether or not it’s anything that sticks remains to be seen. And as you know, the US dollar tends to move in the same direction in multiple currency pairs.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis – Market Looking to the “Carry Trade”

That being said, one place that it is going to be different is the US dollar against the Japanese yen. And this is mainly due to the fact that the Bank of Japan clearly cannot raise rates. And of course, you get paid interest rate differential swap to hold this currency pair. The 150 yen level just above, of course, is going to be an area worth watching.

It’s a large round psychologically significant figure. And it’s also an area that if we do break above there, the 152 yen level is an area that traders will probably be aiming for. Pullbacks, and there are probably high probabilities of doing so, do appear in this pair, but I think they offer buying opportunities. It’s really not until we break down below the 50-day EMA that I would consider that the rally might be over.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis – The Aussie Looks at 0.6650 Below

The Australian dollar continues to look absolutely pathetic as it is the big loser against the US dollar, although we are trying to turn things around just above the 200 day EMA. The 0.6650 level underneath there is a massive support level. And if that gets violated, the Aussie is probably going to go tumbling from there.

This is an interesting currency pair because it’s so highly sensitive to risk appetite. And of course, Asia, and it’s worth noting that the stimulus coming out of China was much weaker than anticipated, so that might be part of what you’re seeing here.

But there’s also a lot of concern about global growth, and if global growth starts to fall off or fall apart, commodities coming out of places like Australia won’t be in demand, and that of course will have a major influence on what we see with the Aussie dollar itself. As things stand right now, it looks like the 0.6650 level is a major fulcrum point for the next big move.