EUR/USD, USD/JPY and AUD/USD Forecast – US Dollar Continues to Bounce Around

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The euro has gone back and forth during the course of the trading session on Friday in the early hours as we continue to hang out at the 1.03 level. Quite frankly, I don’t know if this is a market that I want to do too much in as things stand right now. Having said that, if we get a rally, I am more than comfortable getting involved in this market and shorting it to the first signs of exhaustion, especially near the 1.04 level, and then again at the 50-day EMA. Between now and then, I think we’re just killing time.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

The US dollar has bounced a bit in the early hours against the Japanese yen as the 50 day EMA has come into focus. The 155 yen level of course offers a little bit of psychological support, so we’ll have to see how this plays out. This is an uptrend. There’s no need to get too excited about it other than to recognize the last couple of days have been brutal but really not much has structurally changed. So, I still favor the upside. I just recognize that this has been a rough go over the last two and a half days or so.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar continues to fall pretty significantly against the US dollar, but it also is hanging around the 0.62 level, an area that has been important multiple times. And therefore, I think you’ve got a situation where the market is just simply trying to figure out where to go next.

Short-term rallies will almost certainly get sold into, especially near the 0.63 level, as the situation in China is somewhat dire and of course, Australia is highly levered to China. So as long as that’s the case, there’s no real need to think about getting long of this market anytime soon. And in fact, I think you have a situation where you fade each and every rally as they come.