EUR/USD, USD/JPY and AUD/USD Forecast – US Dollar Mixed

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The euro has gapped lower but then rallied after that, continuing to see a lot of noisy behavior. That being said, the market is still very negative, and we have sold off in the later part of the European session just a touch. This suggests that we will continue to see downward pressure.

It’s also worth noting that the market is likely to continue facing questions about tariffs coming out of the United States, as well as the fact that the European Union remains sluggish. Meanwhile, the U.S. economy continues to chug along, with the Federal Reserve likely to remain very tight with its monetary policy. I still favor shorting rallies.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

The US dollar has rallied a bit against the Japanese yen as we continue to see quite a bit of noisy behavior in this market. However, we are starting to sell off at the top of the range from Friday. It will be interesting to see if we can actually gain traction.

This market eventually shows a certain amount of value, but it’s also worth noting that we are right at the 200-day EMA. If we can’t get above there, that could, at least in theory, be a pretty negative sign—perhaps sending this pair down to ¥150. If we can break out to the upside and clear the ¥153 level, then the 50-day EMA is likely to be targeted.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar gapped lower to kick off the trading session, but since then, we’ve seen the dollar sell off quite a bit to fill that gap. The key question is: What do we do with the 50-day EMA sitting right around the 0.63 level? This is an area I am interested in fading at the first signs of exhaustion, so I am watching it very closely.

If we can break above there, the 0.6350 level gets targeted, and anything above that could change the overall trajectory of the market, at least for the next several weeks. If we break down, the 0.62 level underneath appears to be significant support.

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