EUR/USD, USD/JPY and AUD/USD Forecast – US Dollar Mixed Against Other Major Currencies

EUR/USD Technical Analsysis

The Euro has been all over the place, as you would expect, due to the interest rate decision coming out of the European Central Bank. But what’s interesting is that despite the fact that the Europeans did in fact cut rates, the reality is that we also had advanced GDP in the United States coming in cooler than anticipated. So that does suggest that maybe the tide’s turning a little bit.

I still think really early in suggesting that the Euro is suddenly going to overtake the dollar. I think this ends up being a sell the rally type of event. But the market at this point, I think, is just trying to sort out all of this noise. So therefore, I suggest that the Euro is probably going to be somewhat neutral to negative with the 1.05 level above continuing to offer resistance.

USD/JPY Technical Analsysis

The US dollar has fallen significantly against the Japanese yen due to that GDP report, it’s not a huge surprise, but I would also recognize the fact that this is a market that’s very noisy. There’s a lot of nonsense coming out of Tokyo and unfortunately Washington DC as well about central bank policies.

I think if they would just admit that they didn’t know what they were going to do at the Federal Reserve that might help, but instead they choose to confuse the market during the press conferences like they did on Wednesday. Nonetheless, this is still a very bullish market, and I think that a buy on the dip type of scenario continues to be the way forward in a market that gets you paid at the end of every session via a very positive swap.

AUD/USD Technical Analsysis

Finally, we have the Australian dollar which is somewhat neutral for the day. That’s not a huge surprise. We just had three down days. Why wouldn’t we stabilize at least in the short term? But I think any rally at this point in time, I’m still looking at the 50 day EMA as a potential barrier, and then again, at the 0.6350 level.

I have no interest in buying the Australian dollar but do have interest in buying the US dollar. And in fact, if you look at the chart, it almost appears like we are forming some type of bearish pennant, but it’s a little early to call it that. Nonetheless, it does line up with the overall trend.

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