EUR/USD Weekly Forecast – Euro Has a Confusing Week

EUR/USD Forecast Video for 27.11.23

Euro vs US Dollar Weekly Technical Analysis

The euro has gone back and forth during the course of the trading week, as it looks like we are trying to sort out whether or not the upward momentum of the previous week is something that’s going to stick. After all, even though interest rates in America have been dropping a bit, the reality is that the ECB is probably going to have to cut their rates quicker than the Americans. That’s going to be the case, then it does make a certain amount of sense that the US dollar is somewhat resilient.

Furthermore, the 200-Week EMA sits right around the 1.10 level, and of course we did test the 61.8% Fibonacci level, an area that a lot of traders pay attention to. Beyond that, you can also make an argument that the market may have gotten a little overextended, so it’s possible that we pull back for that reason alone. In general, I think you continue to see a lot of volatility, and therefore it’s likely that we could continue to see a lot of choppy behavior.

If we were to break above the 200-Week EMA, then it’s possible that we could go looking to the 1.1250 level, which would be a complete retracement of the move lower that we had seen a couple of months ago. On the other hand, if we were to break down below the 1.0850 level, then we could take a look at the 1.07 level underneath that. Breaking below that level then opens up the possibility of moving down to the 1.05 level underneath. All things being equal, this is a market that continues to see a lot of noisy behavior, and therefore I think you need to be cautious with your position sizing.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.