EUR/USD Weekly Price Forecast – Euro Continues to Bounce Around

Euro vs US Dollar Weekly Technical Analysis

The Euro has pierced and broke above the 1.10 level during the course of the week, but it looks as if it is still struggling a bit. And therefore, I think you’re probably going to continue to see a lot of the same noise. That noise is a situation where we have the markets just going from one large psychological figure to another. So, if we do break out to the upside, it’s possible that we test the 1.11 level, that’s an area that has been resisted multiple times going all the way back to the early part of 2022.

In fact, when you look at the weekly chart, you can clearly see we really haven’t gone anywhere since the very end of 2022. So, it’s a range-bound market. A lot of traders will do something along the lines of putting an oscillator on and try to take advantage of the way the market has essentially been stuck in this range, and if you look at the stochastic oscillator, you can make an argument that we are not quite to the overbought level, but we’re awfully close.

We’re within a hair or two of it crossing. So, if we see a little bit of downward momentum, I can imagine a scenario where the euro finds its way down to the 1.06 level. That would take some time. It might be the end of the year by the time we get there. This pair really doesn’t move that much.

If we break to the upside, I think once we break above 1.11, then there was a previous gap near the 1.125 area that has been significant resistance previously. And that might be where we try to go. But breaking above that, I think is going to take something extraordinary.

Remember, both of these central banks have been loosening monetary policy or in the case of the Federal Reserve, hinting that they’re going to. So, people are trying to run ahead of that decision. At the end of the day though, even if the Fed does cut, it really doesn’t change much from where we were a couple of months ago.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.