EUR/USD Weekly Price Forecast – Euro hanging on by a thread

The Euro went back and forth during the week but eventually settled on a positive candle stick. Ultimately, we have recaptured the 1.10 level which of course is a psychological victory, but when you look at the longer-term chart, it’s quite obvious that we have a lot of downward pressure. At this point, I’m looking for signs of exhaustion after a small rally to start selling again. The other scenario is that we simply break down below the weekly lows, and then we could go towards the 100% Fibonacci retracement level. It is going to take a long time for that to happen though, but it does appear that’s the longer-term target.

EUR USD Forecast Video 09.09.19

If we were to break above the 1.11 level, then the market is probably going to go to the 1.12 handle. This is a market that has been in a downward channel for some time and in a very choppy manner. At this point it looks like we will simply have more of the same. Germany is entering a recession, and of course the European bonds out there are offering negative yields for the most part. That is of course favor the US dollar to strengthen, so we have at least two major fundamental reasons. At this point, I don’t have a scenario in which a willing to buy the Euro, at least not yet. If we were to break above the red 50 week EMA, then we could go higher, but it seems very unlikely in this type of environment.