EUR/GBP Fundamental Analysis June 24, 2013 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/GBP  is trading at 0.8528 gaining a bit of momentum today. Trading on global markets was dominated by the repositioning in the wake of Wednesday’s Fed meeting. The eco data were largely ignored. However, sterling was the exception to the rule. EUR/GBP was already under slight pressure early in the session. The UK retail sales were reported much better than expected. This triggered sterling buying across the board but was long forgotten today. Cable continued to outperform EUR/USD. EUR/GBP dropped to the 0.8520 area late in Europe. Later in the session the decline of the euro slowed across the board. EUR/GBP closed the session at 0.8528 compared with 0.8587.

A sustained drop below 0.8400/0.8390 is needed to improve the picture for sterling. This level was already tested several times over the past months as the ECB clearly reinstalled an easing bias and reduced its policy rate to 0.50%. However, a sustained break didn’t occur and the pair settled in a sideways consolidation pattern between 0.8400 and 0.8600. ECB policy will remain very accommodative in the foreseeable future. On the other hand, there is a lot of uncertainty on the UK policy framework once the new Governor Carney will start his job as BoE Chairman in July. For now we don’t see a big case for a break either way.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data June 21, 2013 actual v. forecast

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP, CAD and USD

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Jun 24 09:30 Germany

Jun 24 10:30 Belgium

Jun 24 15:30 Italy

Jun 25 08:30 Spain

Jun 25 09:10 Italy

Jun 25 09:10 Norway

Jun 25 14:30 UK

Jun 25 17:00 US

Jun 26 09:10 Italy

Jun 26 17:00 US

Jun 27 00:30 Japan

Jun 27 09:10 Italy

Jun 27 17:00 US